Strike Ending & Amazon Antitrust - Streaming Services: Power Rankings, FALL 2023

[Snarf Zagyg]

So after reflection, I think this will be the last power rankings. While I think they served a useful purpose, the amount of time it takes to make these (not inconsiderable) is just not worth it based upon the feedback - both directly onto the comment, and conversations in the threads.

FYI, SAG-AFTRA is resuming negotiations today, and hopefully we will see a relatively quick resolution given that there is a starting framework on the big issues (restrictions on AI and streaming residuals) from the WGA deal.

 

[payn]

So after reflection, I think this will be the last power rankings. While I think they served a useful purpose, the amount of time it takes to make these (not inconsiderable) is just not worth it based upon the feedback - both directly onto the comment, and conversations in the threads.

FYI, SAG-AFTRA is resuming negotiations today, and hopefully we will see a relatively quick resolution given that there is a starting framework on the big issues (restrictions on AI and streaming residuals) from the WGA deal.

I appreciate your posts so far, but yes most folks only seem to want to discuss their viewing preferences and not any business aspects. Which is fine. The two were always blurred together and likely always will be. Its like Fantasy Football, you can make some real good guesses about the future, but its uncertainty is what keeps you interested.

 

[trappedslider]

@Snarf Zagyg it seems your rankings and those who took this survey are widely different

Max Is No. 1 Streamer for Overall Satisfaction While Netflix Falls to Sixth Place: Survey

Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max turned in the highest total customer satisfaction rating among U.S. subscription-streaming services, according to the results of Whip Media’s 2023 Streaming Satisfaction Report. Max (then HBO Max) also topped Whip Media’s study last year. Even so, this year Max fell...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

@Snarf Zagyg it seems your rankings and those who took this survey are widely different

shrug

As you might know, I tend to believe in revealed preference, not rando surveys.

The power rankings are my subjective take on the current position of the streamers as it relates to their present and future as businesses.

 

[Zardnaar]

shrug

As you might know, I tend to believe in revealed preference, not rando surveys.

The power rankings are my subjective take on the current position of the streamers as it relates to their present and future as businesses.

I'm kinda interested in business's side of things. Apart from Netflix, Amazon and Apple they all seem vad from that PoV.

 

[Myrdin Potter]

Max has a lot of debt. That is because of how it was birthed, via a drunk AT&T which has tossed $billions into large piles and lit it on fire but in the desert where not even the heat was needed. That cripples their ability to make bolder choices. They are still great at making shows/movies that people want to watch.

Disney is struggling and Andor was only better than Boba Fet in terms of recent Star Wars shows. No one watched more than a few episodes of that snore fest. That is the real problem they have, they are making too many shows that viewers are not getting excited about (movies too).

Apple brought me Slow Horses which is the best written and best acted TV show I have seen in ages. That makes Andor look like a food stain on the sidewalk. I struggle to see the business reason for it other than Jobs was tangled up with Disney forever and Apple caught the bug.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

@trappedslider

After looking back at my earlier response, I realized that it probably came off as dismissive, and for that I wanted to apologize. That wasn't my intent.

The survey information is interesting, although it wouldn't change my rankings. Let me explain-

The rankings are my subjective opinion about the current and future business prospects of the streamers. So it's a gestalt of the overall business of the streamer (which incorporates factors such as debt load, Wall Street expectations, library, quality of titles, number of subscribers, growth, ability of a parent company to subsidize operations, and current ability to profit from the streaming service), projections into the future, and some reaction to recent news (this ranking, for example, dinged Prime for the FTC lawsuit).

To me, the most interesting metric is the one that reported that while Netflix still leads as the number one choice for people if they could only keep one service, the number of people who would choose Netflix had decreased. That is a little more concerning, given that they previously were head and shoulders above all other services, and now are just ... ahead. In other words, Netflix might be in danger of losing that "utility" advantage that they have, especially if they keep increasing the price- this is one of the reasons they finally broke down and added an ad-supported tier.

Still, surveys are not the same thing as actions. Netflix's overall metrics in terms of actually being able to turn a profit are so far ahead of its competitors that we would have to see some serious movement in core subscriber numbers for Netflix to be anything other than #1. As it stands, every other streamer is still trying to figure out the most basic thing possible; how do they make money from this? Let alone get to the point of Netflix's incredibly profitable operation.

Again, given the nature of streaming and how easy it is for people to cancel services and switch, this is a lead that could evaporate quickly. But until there is evidence that this is happening, it's hard to rate Netflix as anything other than the clear number 1.

 

[GreyLord]

4. Disney+. (2022: 2, Apr. 2023: 5, Summer 2023: 2).
Why the fall for D+? Well, in the summer they had similar negatives, but everyone else was doing even worse. But before getting into the negatives, let's try and examine the positives looking forward.

In 2024, they will add Hulu. That's a positive. Also? With ESPN, they have access to live sports. Some people care about that. Also, if you have children, they like Disney. And ... that's about it.

Now, the negatives. The strike hurt D+, badly. For adults, the main selling point is the occasional drop of movies (you know, Disney movies) and the occasional new series (which mostly seem to be MCU or Star Wars). The strike has disrupted that pipeline.

We also can't ignore the quality. The last MCU series, Secret Invasion, was ... not good. In general, it would seem that there are diminishing returns on the Marvel part of the D+ experience. And as for Star Wars, the shows have either been "uneven" or have been very high quality, but not watched by a lot of people (sigh, Andor).

And this brings us to the bring problem- the parent company. If you're not aware of it, Disney is struggling right now with a variety of issues. They have been funneling money into streaming, and Wall Street has been unhappy about that. Just as importantly, the movies have not been producing the profits that they used to. Meanwhile, the parks, which are big money makers, need investment. Finally, the cable networks (such as ESPN) throw off cash, but these are diminishing assets given that people are switching from cable to streaming. Oh, and they have to pony up A LOT of money to buy out Comcast's stake in Hulu next year.

In short, there are a lot of simultaneous business issues going on with The Mouse, and no clear path forward right now.

Big Stormclouds look like they may be in store for Disney. Peltz appears to be gearing up for another war. Last time rumors flew about massively insane things. It was harsh, it was hard, and there have been casualties.

Emerging from the War was Chapek (Peltz's little champ) out and Iger in. This time, it appears that Peltz may be going all in and wanting not just one seat, but multiple seats and who knows what with Iger.

This could spell a great deal of turmoil over behind the scenes at Disney. If Peltz wins and has actually gets several seats with him sitting in one, look for a HARD right turn from Disney for starters, and things that wouldn't even be imagined (well, some here probably have imagined them) occurring at Disney with hypothetical sells and buys that boggle the imagination.

I'm hoping he doesn't win, but if he goes to war, it's going to be blood this time I think.

 

[Gradine]

The news coming out that not all of the Marvel TV shows had actual showrunners is at once the most and least shocking thing I've ever heard. Happy to see they're (being forced into) turning that ship around. I need significantly more Kate Bishop in my life.

 

[Zardnaar]

The news coming out that not all of the Marvel TV shows had actual showrunners is at once the most and least shocking thing I've ever heard. Happy to see they're (being forced into) turning that ship around. I need significantly more Kate Bishop in my life.

Link?