Pathfinder 1E Is Pathfinder Sustainable in the Long-Term?

[Job]

Hello Olaf et. al.

I can only really speak for myself, but here are my own thoughts regarding the points that you made.

1. Subscribers that switched their surplus Dragon and Dungeon subs find that Pathfinder doesn't fill the same role that the magazines did.

Perhaps. But I have faith in Paizo's demonstrated ability to listen to their customer base and appropriately tailor their content to the customer's expectations and interests.

2. The price is too high.

Yep, I agree that it's a bit high, but I've already subscribed to Pathfinder because I have faith in Paizo's ability to produce high-quality, interesting content that I can use in my game sessions, whether I'm running that path or not. Will it be worth it? Time will tell, and by then, things will change again.

3. 2 adventure paths per year is too much.

Actually for me, one adventure path per year was too much. I started DM'ing Shackled City with my players over 2 years ago and am only now getting into the thick of it with them. But I continued subscribing because loved reading AOW and I'm stealing ideas from Savage Tide. I expect that it'll be no different with the Pathfinder products.

4. It is easy to lose subscribers for 6 months at a time.

Agreed, but this is just one more publishing challenge that I'm expecting Paizo's talented staff to overcome.

5. The WotC Digital Initiative.

I pay for one online publication already (not gaming related), so I'm somewhat familiar with that medium and why I would pay for it. I continue to prefer hardcopy gaming publications, but digital can be attractive in that it can satisfy other customer desires (e.g. portability, search capabilities, ease of reference). If WotC provides a compelling digital product, then I'll consider adding it, but I'm not so sure that it'll replace my Pathfinder subscription, especially since Pathfinder would include some digital content (i.e. PDF's and bulletin board support). The two products, in my mind, would satisfy different needs/desires for me.

Job.

 

[JoshuaFrost]

Next, I don't see it at Amazon.com. I keep hearing about the wonderful relationship they have with book vendors but if it ain't at Amazon.com for preorders... heck, I don't see a lot of Paizo stuff there.

We asked the listings for Pathfinder to be turned on the day the announcement went live. Unfortunately, it takes some time. You should see Pathfinder up in the next couple of days at the most.

 

[Ryltar]

Re: the allegedly "too high" cover price

I think this stems largely from the fact that many people still perceive PF as a replacement for Dungeon & Dragon Magazine. In fact, they're more akin to softcover sourcebooks, which negates the price argument (or at least weakens it).

Sure, $ 250/year is quite a sum, but honestly: I'd rather spend my gaming budget on a company I explicitly *trust* to come out with creative, interesting ideas than on some empty brand name. Even though I already know I probably won't run each AP (heck, even a single one in its entirety!), I expect PF to be a great resource for ideas, setting details, locations, monsters, and plot hooks. Just like Dungeon, by the way ...

 

[GlassJaw]

$13.99 if you buy the PDF. $17.99 including shipping if you are a US subscriber, $18.99 including shipping if you are a non-US subscriber, $19.99 if you buy it at the regular retail price from your FLGS.

There isn't a PDF-only subscription. If you subscribe, you get the PDF as a freebie.

 

[Pyrex]

Also, even if Pathfinder doesn't have the same subscription numbers as as Dungeon and Dragon did, that doesn't mean it's not a success.

Right now my gaming group collectively encompasses 1x Dungeon subscription and 2x, mabye 3x Dragon subscriptions.

I can pretty much guarantee that will change to 1x Pathfinder subscription for our regular DM.

Does that mean Pathfinder is a failure becuase it's only generating 1/4 the subscriptions that Dungeon and Dragon did?

Hardly. That one Pathfinder subscription brings about as much money as our entire gaming groups collective subscriptions to Dungeon and Dragon did in the first place.

And if I had to guess, I'd guess that dollar-for-dollar Paizo will see a higher profit margin from Pathfinder than from Dungeon and Dragon.

 

[crazy_cat]

*snip*
After all, while I'm pretty sure I am not WotC's target customer - I'm 99% certain that I am Paizo's target customer.

And if you are reading this post - odds are that you are too.

QFT.

 

[Demmero]

The other element of Pathfinder that makes me question somewhat its ability to survive long-term is that it'll be OGL and not have the official D&D license to prop it up. No Monster Manuals 2-5, no Fiend Folio, none of the spells and PrCs from the Complete series or Spell Compendium, etc. Those brought a lot of spice and variety to past adventure paths. It looks like the goblins from the first Pathfinder AP are an interesting twist on the little critters, but it might take just one ill-conceived heavily-featured monster in an AP to sour customers on them as a whole.

Plus, there aren't a ton of monsters in the SRD document to begin with; repeated use in multiple 1-20 level APs may make them wear thin. What other monster sources are available for an OGL-based AP I'm not sure, but I'll bet such sources aren't as widely distributed as the WotC monster books.

The good news is that Paizo seems to recognize this potential problem, as they're already saying on their web site that they'll be in the market for new monsters, and lots of them. The better news is that if there's a group that can overcome this and other tribulations, it's Erik, James, and the rest of the crew at Paizo.

I wish them the best of luck. (And I'll hold off on making my final decision about Pathfinder for another month or two.)

 

[BryonD]

Re: the allegedly "too high" cover price

I think this stems largely from the fact that many people still perceive PF as a replacement for Dungeon & Dragon Magazine. In fact, they're more akin to softcover sourcebooks, which negates the price argument (or at least weakens it).

Perception is reality in many cases, and this is a good example.
Whether they are books or not, they ARE coming out replacing Dragon and Dungeon. And, I can not think of any gaming book series that one subscribes to on a month to month basis. So they are going to be perceived as a periodical, not as a book.

I agree 100% that 96 pages and no ads is going to be book value. So I'm really not disputing the value point. But the perception is a real thing that can not be discounted if you want an honest assessment.

As to the OP, I think the reply above that they have a fighting chance is a good assessment. Paizo has a solid fan base and a proven track record. And with so much of the third party market gone, there is a certain demand for non-WotC support.

On the other hand, between a fair number of people buying in with money they have already "spent" and more people buying in now based as much on emotion as anything else, it stands to reason that a fair percentage will not renew when the heat has faded and an actual payment of money out of pocket is required.

But rather than seeing that as a negative, you can look at these extra start up sales as the big first leg up that the line needs in order to get going.

Is the glass half full or empty there? I'd tend to think that moving product is a good thing, so I'd be positive.

It'll be tough, but a strong fighting chance seems right.

 

[Finger Steeple]

I just hope we don't see another market flood of adventures like we did when d20 first surfaced back in 2000 / 2001. The adventures have improved greatly since (with game designers, over time, getting more comfortable with the rules).

The trend now seems to be adventures with monthly subscription services (ie Goodman Games, War of the Burning Sky, and now Pathfinder) so its not as if Paizo is inventing the wheel (but doing a great job at making it run smoother). As much as I like shopping at my FLGS, the 'netflix-esque' concept of getting a monthly adventure or two in the mail is pretty intriguing.

 

[DaveMage]

I think it will succeed as long as 3.5 is the current edition.

Once 4th edition hits, it will depend on if the game rules & mechanics are released as open game content. If they are not, then in all likelihood, the OGL D&D-like adventure companies (Goodman, Paizo, Necromancer) will cease to have a sustainable market.