Olaf the Stout
Hero
Before we start let me just say that I hope Pathfinder is a big success for Paizo. This thread is not about me knocking their new product, it is about me wondering whether or not it is sustainable for them in the long-term. I'm sure that the people at Paizo have done their homework on this one and think that it is. I really hope that they are right, but I have my doubts.
In the short-term, Paizo (and Pathfinder) should do just fine. Paizo have deservedly built up a good reputation over the last few years. They have come out of the whole Dragon/Dungeon fiasco looking like the unfortunate victims of a WotC business decision (which I believe they are). They have also been able to take advantage of current subscribers surplus Dungeon and Dragon subs by convincing them to change them over to Pathfinder subscriptions. In addition some people are supporting Paizo and subscribing to Pathfinder just to stick it to the man (WotC).
Howver, in the long-term things are different. Here are some issues which I think will result in lower subscription numbers in the longer-term for Pathfinder which could make the product unviable:
1. Subscribers that switched their surplus Dragon and Dungeon subs find that Pathfinder doesn't fill the same role that the magazines did. Many people that converted their extra Dragon and Dungeon issues to Pathfinder would have considered it to be a free look at the new product.
Yes, I realise that they have actually paid for the issues but a lot of people would have perceived it as money that they had already spent so it didn't matter. Once these pre-paid issues have run out and they have to start paying for Pathfinder they may decide that it isn't providing them the same value for money that Dungeon or Dragon did and stop subscribing.
2. The price is too high. $19.99 USD for 96-pages may simply be more than some people are willing to pay for a monthly subscription. Yes, you can get it for $13.99 USD if you subscribe. However $4 shipping for US subscribers and or $5 shipping for non-US subscribers means that you are still paying $18-$19 USD for each issue. That works out to somewhere between $215.88 (US Subscriber) and $239.88 (Full Retail) to get all 12 issues each year. This is more than it cost if you had 1-year subscriptions to both Dungeon and Dragon.
Yes, I know that 1 issue of Pathfinder is still cheaper than a product Paizo have compared it to, Red Hand of Doom. I also know that there will be more actual content per page compared to Dungeon and/or Dragon now that advertisements no longer fill half the page. Despite this I believe that some people will not subscribe as the price is higher than they are willing to spend on a monthly subscription.
There are also others for whom $215-$240 USD represents a significant percentage of their yearly gaming budget. Some people may not be willing to commit that much of their budget to just one product. They might, for example, prefer to spend a bit on sourcebooks, a bit on minis and a bit on adventures instead.
3. 2 adventure paths per year is too much. Even if Pathfinder produces the best adventures on the market (which I think is possible), some people just won't be able to keep up with the speed at which they come out. Even if my group played on a weekly basis (which we don't), I still don't think that my group could complete an AP in 6 months. This means that we would never catch up and I would always have adventures which I never ran. I don't think that I am alone in this situation.
Some groups have yet to finish the AOW AP, even though most of the ST AP has been published. Eventually DM's will reach a point where they have so many unrun adventures that they just don't need another adventure path, no matter how good it is.
Of course all of this assumes that people use AP's exclusively. If you like to run stand-alone adventures or something of your own creation as well as AP's then you get even further behind. This will mean that you will reach AP oversupply even sooner.
4. It is easy to lose subscribers for 6 months at a time. If someone doesn't like the concept of a particular adventure path in Pathfinder it is unlikely that they will buy any of the 6 issues that feature that AP. Yes, I do know that roughly half of each issue of Pathfinder will include other information that will be useful to any campaign, such as spells, monsters, feats, campaign locations, etc. However, I doubt that many people will spend $20 to buy a product that they know up front that they won't be able to use half of.
I know that the adventures are being designed with the idea that they can also be used as stand-alone adventures. However, the common perception (at least from posts I have read here and on the Paizo boards) is that the AP adventures aren't really used unless you are running that particular AP. Part of the problem is that once you decide to use a particular AP adventure, you are effectively eliminating the ability to use that particular AP with your group. Either that or you have to come up with a substitute adventure to fill in the one that you have used.
5. The WotC Digital Initiative. This is a bit more of a wildcard that the others since we don't actually have much information on what this will actually be. However I think it is reasonable to assume that some people that previously subscribed to Dungeon or Dragon will be interested in it. They may not have enough money to get both Pathfinder and the Digital Initiative. Some will choose the Digital Initiative, meaning fewer Pathfinder subscribers.
In summary, there are quite a few issues that I feel need to be addressed for Pathfinder to be an ongoing, long-term success. Some of them may have simple solutions, others are a little more difficult to solve. Personally I hope that I am either wrong about some of theses issues and they turn out to be non-events. I would hate to see the end of Paizo and AP's now that they have lost the Dungeon and Dragon licences.
What do you think? Agree or disagree? Have any solutions? Post and let me know.
Olaf the Stout
In the short-term, Paizo (and Pathfinder) should do just fine. Paizo have deservedly built up a good reputation over the last few years. They have come out of the whole Dragon/Dungeon fiasco looking like the unfortunate victims of a WotC business decision (which I believe they are). They have also been able to take advantage of current subscribers surplus Dungeon and Dragon subs by convincing them to change them over to Pathfinder subscriptions. In addition some people are supporting Paizo and subscribing to Pathfinder just to stick it to the man (WotC).
Howver, in the long-term things are different. Here are some issues which I think will result in lower subscription numbers in the longer-term for Pathfinder which could make the product unviable:
1. Subscribers that switched their surplus Dragon and Dungeon subs find that Pathfinder doesn't fill the same role that the magazines did. Many people that converted their extra Dragon and Dungeon issues to Pathfinder would have considered it to be a free look at the new product.
Yes, I realise that they have actually paid for the issues but a lot of people would have perceived it as money that they had already spent so it didn't matter. Once these pre-paid issues have run out and they have to start paying for Pathfinder they may decide that it isn't providing them the same value for money that Dungeon or Dragon did and stop subscribing.
2. The price is too high. $19.99 USD for 96-pages may simply be more than some people are willing to pay for a monthly subscription. Yes, you can get it for $13.99 USD if you subscribe. However $4 shipping for US subscribers and or $5 shipping for non-US subscribers means that you are still paying $18-$19 USD for each issue. That works out to somewhere between $215.88 (US Subscriber) and $239.88 (Full Retail) to get all 12 issues each year. This is more than it cost if you had 1-year subscriptions to both Dungeon and Dragon.
Yes, I know that 1 issue of Pathfinder is still cheaper than a product Paizo have compared it to, Red Hand of Doom. I also know that there will be more actual content per page compared to Dungeon and/or Dragon now that advertisements no longer fill half the page. Despite this I believe that some people will not subscribe as the price is higher than they are willing to spend on a monthly subscription.
There are also others for whom $215-$240 USD represents a significant percentage of their yearly gaming budget. Some people may not be willing to commit that much of their budget to just one product. They might, for example, prefer to spend a bit on sourcebooks, a bit on minis and a bit on adventures instead.
3. 2 adventure paths per year is too much. Even if Pathfinder produces the best adventures on the market (which I think is possible), some people just won't be able to keep up with the speed at which they come out. Even if my group played on a weekly basis (which we don't), I still don't think that my group could complete an AP in 6 months. This means that we would never catch up and I would always have adventures which I never ran. I don't think that I am alone in this situation.
Some groups have yet to finish the AOW AP, even though most of the ST AP has been published. Eventually DM's will reach a point where they have so many unrun adventures that they just don't need another adventure path, no matter how good it is.
Of course all of this assumes that people use AP's exclusively. If you like to run stand-alone adventures or something of your own creation as well as AP's then you get even further behind. This will mean that you will reach AP oversupply even sooner.
4. It is easy to lose subscribers for 6 months at a time. If someone doesn't like the concept of a particular adventure path in Pathfinder it is unlikely that they will buy any of the 6 issues that feature that AP. Yes, I do know that roughly half of each issue of Pathfinder will include other information that will be useful to any campaign, such as spells, monsters, feats, campaign locations, etc. However, I doubt that many people will spend $20 to buy a product that they know up front that they won't be able to use half of.
I know that the adventures are being designed with the idea that they can also be used as stand-alone adventures. However, the common perception (at least from posts I have read here and on the Paizo boards) is that the AP adventures aren't really used unless you are running that particular AP. Part of the problem is that once you decide to use a particular AP adventure, you are effectively eliminating the ability to use that particular AP with your group. Either that or you have to come up with a substitute adventure to fill in the one that you have used.
5. The WotC Digital Initiative. This is a bit more of a wildcard that the others since we don't actually have much information on what this will actually be. However I think it is reasonable to assume that some people that previously subscribed to Dungeon or Dragon will be interested in it. They may not have enough money to get both Pathfinder and the Digital Initiative. Some will choose the Digital Initiative, meaning fewer Pathfinder subscribers.
In summary, there are quite a few issues that I feel need to be addressed for Pathfinder to be an ongoing, long-term success. Some of them may have simple solutions, others are a little more difficult to solve. Personally I hope that I am either wrong about some of theses issues and they turn out to be non-events. I would hate to see the end of Paizo and AP's now that they have lost the Dungeon and Dragon licences.
What do you think? Agree or disagree? Have any solutions? Post and let me know.
Olaf the Stout
