D&D (2024) What do you think One D&D will do to the VTT industry?

[doctorbadwolf]

1. IF they get it to work, WotC will likely move all future D&D support from other VTTs. Eventually, if players want to play the most current edition and new products, they'll have no choice but to go to the new 3D VTT. Being the biggest game on the market, support for all other VTTs will dry up, effectively marking the end for many. Roll20 will be the first to go, because there isn't as much customization possible, it doesn't handle other systems that well, and D&D is such a major part of their games. Foundry will linger on with Pathfinder, Warhammer, and Free League games, but it will be primarily for "other games." Fantasy Grounds will continue to run older editions and Pathfinder, and will continue to shrink as those old systems further wane in popularity. Whiteboards, Zoom, and other "DIY" online solutions will remain unchanged.

2. But they won't get it to work.

None of that is at all likely to happen, though.

This is such an extremely odd prediction.

 

[MarkB]

I honestly hope that isn't the case and I find it unlikely.

Assuming their VTT works, because of the sheer size of the D&D player base and if they support other games then we can defiantly say goodbye to most other VTTs. The non-WotC VTT competition just won't have the customer base to support them because D&D tends to be the gateway to other RPGs in general so those playing other games may likely stick with WotC's VTT to play the other games. That would be horrible for those of us who don't play D&D and want a VTT.

I also find it unlikely that WotC will support other games because they don't already. There are other games with OGLs or the equivalent and Hasbro/WotC doesn't produce material for them. I believe there are two reasons for that. First, they want D&D to be and remain the 800-pound gorilla in the room and letting in other games will drain a small number of players from the core product. Second, the player base for most other RPGs is so small comparatively that to a company like Hasbro it probably won't make financial sense to support them.

This VTT isn't going to take over the industry and oust all other competitors. WotC may be the 800lb gorilla in the tabletop world, but this is a new avenue for them, and one in which there are already dominant participants that D&D players routinely use and prefer.

And this is a specialised engine, designed to have all the bells and whistles for those who want the full 3D experience. That's not going to be everyone.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I don't believe WotC will pull the licence from other VTTs. They're all revenue streams for D&D products. Instead, I'd expect them to expand the functionality of their own VTT beyond just D&D, allowing it to compete with others as a semi-general purpose VTT.

Yep. Every licensed vtt is essentially a storefront that sells D&D books.

You don’t generally make more money by getting rid of all the third party stores that sell your product.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

And this is a specialised engine, designed to have all the bells and whistles for those who want the full 3D experience. That's not going to be everyone.

Also this. A 3D vtt using a legit video game engine used to make AAA games is not a direct competitor to roll20. They’re different products, with different appeal.

 

[Umbran]

They sell more product by letting other platforms sell their product, than they’d gain in customers who they just screwed out of their past purchases on a platform they’ve already learned to use.

We can hope they are wise enough to see this, yes.

 

[Hex08]

Yep. Every licensed vtt is essentially a storefront that sells D&D books.

You don’t generally make more money by getting rid of all the third party stores that sell your product.

Or they can sell it themselves directly to the consumer, cut out the middleman and increase their profits.

Like I said in my initial post, I no longer play D&D so maybe I am missing something, but this One D&D initiative sounds like a fully integrated D&D experience in an era where more people are willing to play online. Since people, especially younger people, are more willing to subscribe to services rather than owning physical product and pay for content using microtransactions I find it hard to believe that if One D&D becomes a fully realized product that it won't dominate the market. Whether people slowly abandon other VTTs over time, Hasbro stops offering new content to existing ones or Hasbro pulls licenses altogether seems irrelevant, the D&D offering will win out because of its size and other VTTs will suffer and some will disappear.

 

[Vael]

I think this is putting the cart a mile in front of the horse. Maybe I'm just cynically remembering the never delivered VTT for 4e, but this is the part of One DnD that I'm least interested in and most skeptical about.

That said ... brand recognition is brand recognition, and if (and that's a huge IF), the product is good, easy to use and well integrated with the rest of DnD Beyond, it'll quickly be the elephant in the room, without WotC even needing to revoke licenses or other such hardball tactics.

 

[Hex08]

this is a new avenue for them, and one in which there are already dominant participants that D&D players routinely use and prefer.

I would imagine Research in Motion, the makers of Blackberry smartphones, thought the same thing when the iPhone was released. (And now I feel old....)

And this is a specialised engine, designed to have all the bells and whistles for those who want the full 3D experience. That's not going to be everyone.

It doesn't seem to me that it matters if it appeals to everyone, just that if it appeals to most. I'm not predicting the end of all other VTTs if One D&D succeeds, just that it will have a negative impact on other VTT platforms.

I think this is putting the cart a mile in front of the horse.

I don't disagree, that's why I put the caveat "assuming the new VTT works and is any good" in my original post.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

We can hope they are wise enough to see this, yes.

Sure. I’m not sure what behavior within the last 8-10 years would make us skeptical of that.

Or they can sell it themselves directly to the consumer, cut out the middleman and increase their profits.

Like I said in my initial post, I no longer play D&D so maybe I am missing something, but this One D&D initiative sounds like a fully integrated D&D experience in an era where more people are willing to play online. Since people, especially younger people, are more willing to subscribe to services rather than owning physical product and pay for content using microtransactions I find it hard to believe that if One D&D becomes a fully realized product that it won't dominate the market. Whether people slowly abandon other VTTs over time, Hasbro stops offering new content to existing ones or Hasbro pulls licenses altogether seems irrelevant, the D&D offering will win out because of its size and other VTTs will suffer and some will disappear.

Seems to me that the mindset of Winninger et al, is the “rising tide raises all ships” mentality. So while they could 180 on that and go hard on the proprietary exclusivity thing, but like…doesn’t seem likely.

 

[Retreater]

None of that is at all likely to happen, though.

This is such an extremely odd prediction.

I don't think it's an odd prediction at all. In fact, it's based on WotC's precedent of consistently failing to deliver on every big tech promise.

But, let's say they pull off a miracle of technology and surprise everyone in two years.

Why would they want you to play on their tabletop? To get you into their ecosystem, purchasing your tokens and other assets from them. Do you think they want you making custom tokens on the Tokenizer site for free and using them on your free subscription to Roll20 - when they've spent a fortune to create and promote this new software?

Luckily, they've never pulled access to digital content before or limited our ability to purchase them, right?

If Roll20 can't get the current edition of D&D (their cash-cow), they're done. If you can't get new modules the new core rules, they're done. Especially when WotC is going to start throwing out bundled copies of what you buy (initially) on their 3D tabletop. Why stay around on Roll20?

Foundry isn't going to fare much better. Its saving grace is that it handles other systems (such as Free League's stuff and Pathfinder 2) better than Roll20. There's no way WotC isn't going to slap the D&D Beyond Foundry importers with a cease and desist (they've already shut it down once). Simply put, there will be no way to get access to official content except through the proprietary VTT.

Simply put, there's no way WotC is going to let you buy your content and continue to use it for years when they can limit you to a subscription access - this is the HBOMax, Disney+, Spotify economy now.

I know this sounds ridiculous to people on these boards who are huge WotC fans, because I guess you think WotC are your friends? They are a business, a darn big business. They are targeting a new demographic of players who have grown up not owning their media on CDs/vinyl, or DVDs/VHS. They would rather have a constant revenue stream based off subscriptions than to constantly create new content for old grognards like us.

And to let you run Re-Discovered Mine of Phandelver (or whatever the first adventure is going to be called) by purchasing a module that you're going to own on Fantasy Grounds (which you also own) instead of their subscription-based VTT, that's like Netflix putting the new season of Stranger Things on ABC.