RPG Evolution: Making It in the RPG Industry

Can you make a living in the tabletop role-playing industry as your sole source of income? Unless you work for one of the major game publishers, the odds are against you. But there’s another way, and it revolves around the Thousand Fan theory.

The Thousand Fan Theory​

As I noted in a previous article, the Thousand Fan Theory (TFT) posits that a creator can make a living off of 1,000 superfans paying $100 year, with few middlemen and low additional fees. This approach changes a creator’s goals from simply creating product to creating relationships. It is more important in the TFT to have subscriptions than it is to make one great product.

Applying the TFT to the tabletop role-playing game industry, this means it’s not enough to simply make one tabletop game. In fact, it’s more lucrative to create many products over an extended period of time as incentive to keep superfans coming back for more. So while a core game may provide a temporary boost to income, it’s subsequent supplements, accessories, and adventures are key to supporting a creator.

This shift in focus from one large product to many products over time means that individual creators need to create constantly. Certain mediums lend themselves to this, like web comics, podcasts, and video streams. This is why great podcasters (Russ’ podcast being one example) record so frequently. You can’t create a fan base without a steady stream of content.

Conversely, a loyal fan base does not come quickly. It can take years to launch, which means that the TFT is not feasible for someone who needs the money immediately. Ideally, a creator planning to use the TFT needs to start creating before they graduate from whatever education they’re pursuing. They’ll need at least four years to build that fan base and create a content stream.

For most adults going without income for four years is simply not feasible, so achieving the TFT means having a full-time job or a partner who pays for other expenses in the meantime. Raising a family complicates this calculation; a spouse may be able to help with expenses, but costs increase accordingly to support a family.

It’s daunting, but achieving the TFT is possible. And we know this because there are creators out there doing it. Here’s how.

Patreon​

Of all the income streams, Patreon has the clearest path to the TFT. To achieve $100,000 year in come, you would need to make about $112,000 (Patreon takes up to 10%, but this can vary based on your legacy membership with the platform). This assumes you have a tier of $10/month or a flat contribution of $120 that members contribute yearly.

In terms of RPG content, a creator will likely need to bolster their Patreon with updates frequently, if not on a daily basis. Fortunately, RPGs lend themselves to this. One monster, artifact, species, or class a day is entirely feasible.

DMDave is an example of a RPG creator clearing the $10K/month mark. At the time this article was written, DMDave ranks 16th in the games category. Interestingly enough, there are higher-ranked Patreon RPG creators but those affiliated with tabletop play are all mapmakers. DMDave’s Patreon went from just 12 patrons in November 2018 to 3,563 patrons in June 2020, earning $15,835 month or $4.45 per patron.

DriveThruRPG​

After Patreon, DriveThruRPG is probably the single-most likely distribution channel that an individual creator can use to achieve the TFT. DriveThruRPG takes 35% of the sale of each product, so you would need to sell $153,846 worth of product a year or make $12,820/month (updated thanks to JohnnyZemo). If the average product sells 10 copies a month and retails for $10, you need 128 products in circulation, selling well (most products sell a lot initially, and then level off to a trickle).

It’s worth noting that DriveThruRPG’s algorithm favors new products over old ones. Appearing on the front page of DriveThruRPG is key to driving sales. This means that to keep a content top-of-mind for consumers amid the massive amount of content on DriveThruRPG, a creator needs to produce products monthly if not weekly.

The adamantine list currently has 74 products in good company, ranging from R. Talsorian's Cyberpunk Red to Hero Kids to ZWEIHANDER to FATE. We know that if a product is on the adamantine list it's sold over 5,000 copies, but that's no guarantee of steady income. The product has to both sell at a certain price and frequently enough per year to achieve the $153,846 mark. I plan to reach out to the creators on the list to see if they can achieve this level of steady sales enough to support themselves with the income.

YouTube​

Many kids these days want to be YouTube stars, but it’s a lot of work to get there. More production tends to be involved with video, which means successful YouTube stars are actually teams rather than individuals, segmenting the overall income stream. Additionally, YouTube scale is variable depending on a lot of factors, which makes it difficult to accurately estimate how much any one YouTuber makes a year. We can make some educated guesses, however.

Google pays 68% of their AdSense revenue, but advertiser rates vary between 10-and 30 cents per view. On average, a YouTube channel receives $18 per 1,000 views with advertising, or $4 per 1,000 views total. The calculator at Influencer Marketing Hub gives us an idea of what it takes to achieve the TFT.

That's 18 million views per year on YouTube, to reach the upper end ($104K). That implies an engagement rate of 81%, which is highly engaged. To reach that, you'll need subscribers. Your average subscriber can contribute around 200 views. You'll need at least 100,000 subscribers to reach that. For an example of a video channel that achieves this, see the Critical Role YouTube channel with 957,000 subscribers.

Kickstarter​

Kickstarter takes 5% of any revenue with an additional processing fee of up to 5%, which means to achieve TFT you’ll need to make $112,000. According to The Hustle, games (including video, card, miniature, and tabletop games) make up 10% of all Kickstarters, are successful 38% of the time, and of those successful Kickstarters they tend to have goals around the $13K range. For games, 76% of the most successful were in the $1K to $9K range. Despite these challenges, successful game Kickstarters net on average $54,635, for a grand total of $879 million in total since 2009.

To achieve the TFT plateau of self-sufficiency, you would need to launch 11 successful Kickstarters a year with goals of $10K. The more successful you are with each Kickstarter in exceeding those goals, the less additional Kickstarters you would need for self-sufficiency. Given that almost all the highest earning Kickstarters in the game category were video or board games, this can seem daunting for tabletop gamers, but it’s not impossible. Matt Colville’s Strongholds & Streaming made $2,121,465.

Adding This All Up​

Any one of these sales channels alone is probably not enough to sustain an individual. Even if they did, there's no guarantee an income stream one year will be the same the next year. Patrons leave, subscribers quit, and pandemics happen. And none of these estimates take into account advertising, marketing, development, licensing, and other production or distribution costs. This thought experiment also doesn't assume you hire anyone else -- teams of people are necessary to make great products, so if you only use your own talent, you're going to be doing a LOT of work up front.

Conversely, effort put into one channel can bolster the others; Colville's YouTube channel was a massive boost to his Kickstarter, which created a virtuous cycle of fans generating income multiple times through different streams.

Can you make a living creating RPGs? Absolutely. But it will take a lot of effort, a lot of time, and more than just writing; creating includes editing, art, layout, design, marketing, and sales. If you’re planning to make a living from the industry, you’d better get started now!

 

[Paragon Lost]

Two popular reliable Kickstarters are Shane Lacy Hensley of Savage Worlds fame (his publishing arm is Pinnacle Entertainment). and Monte Cook, formerly of WoTC, now of Monte Cook Games. Others like John WIck's 7th Sea 2nd Edition were just one hit wonders, though Khitai did well but so far below its predecessor.

Monte Cook is the safest bet since he has between 3000 and 4000 financially worthy fans, and these help successfully fund each of his Kickstarters to the tune of anywhere around half a million US Dollars. The fans are also dedicated enough to get the Version 2 after five years of Version 1.

April 2019 Kickstarter Arcana of the Ancients (Numenera for D&D5e) with 5536 fans and $521,207

CORE NUMENERA SERIES
September 2019, Kickstarter Numenera Limimal Shores (more regions) with 2595 fants £378,408
October 2017 Kickstarter Numenera Discovery and Destiny with 4185 fans and $84,5258
September 2015 Kicsktarter Numenera Into the NInth World (regions books) with 3317 fans and $417,560
December 2014 funded Kickstarter Numenera Boxset with 1985 fans and $286,565
September 2012 Kicksarter Numenera (the 1st Cypher Edition) with 4658 fans and $517,255

MCG and Pinnacle are the exceptions really and aren't the norm. Great examples of small successful companies that make great use of the tools out there to excel.

 

[Morrus]

Two popular reliable Kickstarters are Shane Lacy Hensley of Savage Worlds fame (his publishing arm is Pinnacle Entertainment). and Monte Cook, formerly of WoTC, now of Monte Cook Games. Others like John WIck's 7th Sea 2nd Edition were just one hit wonders, though Khitai did well but so far below its predecessor.

They‘re probably a little too big. MCG has a half dozen full time employees. The 1000 true fans theory assumes one person (Maybe a few freelancers).

 

[dchart]

Do I need to link to xkcd's Survivorship Bias comic?

If you want to answer the question of whether this is a realistic path, rather than one in which you could strike it lucky, you need to look at people other than the big success stories, and see how much time they put into it, how good they are, and what sort of percentage grow to become actually self-supporting. Given the first link in the article, Owen K. C. Stephens's Patreon would be a good place to start. $1,300 per month is not negligible, but it isn't a proper living. And how many people can get to that? Owen spent decades building his brand and honing his skills, after all. Dean Spencer is also making about $1,300 per month, with stock art rather than words, and he has been building that up for about five years now. I don't know how much they make through DTRPG (and Open Gaming, in Owen's case) on top of that, from the same material.

This article answers the question "can you make a living this way?". The answer is "Yes", which is worth knowing. However, the more interesting question, I think, is "how much money are you likely to make this way if you are talented and hardworking?", and to answer that you need to look at a broader range of people. You can become a billionaire by writing children's fiction (just ask J. K. Rowling), but you are unlikely to earn enough to take you over the poverty line, even if you get published. What do the broader numbers look like for RPGs? I don't know.

 

[Michael Dean]

What I don't like about this is that this requires these creators to be entertainers. Some people don't like to engage at that level. It also opens up their personal lives to the public and not everyone wants to share that much. Not everyone is entertaining at all levels either. Someone could be put off from an individuals work based on the cut of their jib, having never seen the quality work itself. I am guilty of that, I don't like live play podcasts so I am put off by anything from Critical Role.

I feel bad on the one hand for up and coming creatives because they are expected to do so much more of the back end work themselves before getting any sort of notice from major companies. This is true in every sector of entertainment. While its nice there are less gate keepers and things are more diversified, not everyone is well versed in the other production tools and skills needed to "make it", whatever that means. Having no interest in that aspect of the industry could really hurt because if one lacks passion for running a social media machine, I would expect it to be done poorly.

My wife's cousin is an artist trying to make a go of it full time. The amount of work he has to put in on the socializing level to get noticed probably consumes at least as much of his time as making art. He's constantly working the phones to get commissions, getting into art fairs, travel, holding art shows in galleries, social media, etc. Entertaining people and engaging with the public is hard-wired into the profession.

 

[Jimmy Dick]

This was a rather informative article that explains quite a bit about things I wondered about. I am not surprised at the amount of face time that has to be invested in business. Personal connections have always been an important part of the business world in any segment of it.

 

[Morrus]

What I don't like about this is that this requires these creators to be entertainers. Some people don't like to engage at that level. It also opens up their personal lives to the public and not everyone wants to share that much. Not everyone is entertaining at all levels either. Someone could be put off from an individuals work based on the cut of their jib, having never seen the quality work itself. I am guilty of that, I don't like live play podcasts so I am put off by anything from Critical Role.

I feel bad on the one hand for up and coming creatives because they are expected to do so much more of the back end work themselves before getting any sort of notice from major companies. This is true in every sector of entertainment. While its nice there are less gate keepers and things are more diversified, not everyone is well versed in the other production tools and skills needed to "make it", whatever that means. Having no interest in that aspect of the industry could really hurt because if one lacks passion for running a social media machine, I would expect it to be done poorly.

I have a theory that this diversification causes another problem: The current landscape generates a glut of unpolished products, this creates a lot of noise in the space and gives possibly too many options. There is an idea called choice paralysis where, when one has too many choices, it becomes hard to make any decisions at all, for fear of making a wrong one. This leads to either making no decision, choosing nothing, or choosing the most recognized product because it has a proven track record, rather than taking a chance.

I feel personally blessed to have too many options, though my wallet is less enthusiastic. And like many hobbies, there has not been a better time, but for their sake, I wish writers could just focus on writing.

That's really a consequence of one person doing everything. They might be a good writer, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're a good accountant, for example. Being the figurehead is just one of many hats a self-employed person has to do, whether they're a plumber or a game designer.

 

[Jeff Carpenter]

Again this is a great article and appreciate all the insight.

Timing wise I just saw that the publisher Lamentations of the Flame Princess is in dire straights. Illustrating the difficulty of everything in the artical and showing one wrong move can sink your RPG buisness.

 

[MNblockhead]

I get where you are coming from, but in my experience as a customer/patron/subscriber, I've not found it to be true. Over the past few years I've become more selective and targeted in my hobby spending and I find that while quality varies greatly, the cream does raise to the top. When I find a creator doing great work, one advantage of supporting them with a subscription is that they are more likely to have the financial security and incentive to ensure good quality. Also, because their reputation is so much front and center, I think many creators are more personally invested in the quality of their work.

When a fan/subscriber notes an error, a creator is much more responsive than many publishers can be. For digital material, this is much easier of course, but also, many creators will make the digital version of a print product available first giving invested fans who are eager to get the product ASAP time to give feedback and correction. Many fan relish the opportunity to be involved in the creative process. The 1000 fans are not only sources of income but resources of play testing, editing, and proof reading.

A benefit of the "problem" of diversification is that I don't feel like I need to purchase broadly. And creators do not need to have large numbers of customers to do well. I'll also say that I don't think that creators should be doing this to get the attention of big companies. Many do better on their own. Yes, you have to hustle to make it. What's new? Doesn't matter if you have your own handyman business, are a painter, or a solo/small practice law firm. You have to hustle the get clients and to keep them.

What I don't like about this is that this requires these creators to be entertainers. Some people don't like to engage at that level. It also opens up their personal lives to the public and not everyone wants to share that much. Not everyone is entertaining at all levels either. Someone could be put off from an individuals work based on the cut of their jib, having never seen the quality work itself. I am guilty of that, I don't like live play podcasts so I am put off by anything from Critical Role.

I feel bad on the one hand for up and coming creatives because they are expected to do so much more of the back end work themselves before getting any sort of notice from major companies. This is true in every sector of entertainment. While its nice there are less gate keepers and things are more diversified, not everyone is well versed in the other production tools and skills needed to "make it", whatever that means. Having no interest in that aspect of the industry could really hurt because if one lacks passion for running a social media machine, I would expect it to be done poorly.

I have a theory that this diversification causes another problem: The current landscape generates a glut of unpolished products, this creates a lot of noise in the space and gives possibly too many options. There is an idea called choice paralysis where, when one has too many choices, it becomes hard to make any decisions at all, for fear of making a wrong one. This leads to either making no decision, choosing nothing, or choosing the most recognized product because it has a proven track record, rather than taking a chance.

I feel personally blessed to have too many options, though my wallet is less enthusiastic. And like many hobbies, there has not been a better time, but for their sake, I wish writers could just focus on writing.

 

[Dire Bare]

Again this is a great article and appreciate all the insight.

Timing wise I just saw that the publisher Lamentations of the Flame Princess is in dire straights. Illustrating the difficulty of everything in the artical and showing one wrong move can sink your RPG buisness.

There are several lessons to be learned from Lamentations of the Flame Princess. Changes in the global economy, politics, and pandemics can punch some serious holes in a once thriving business . . . things largely out of your control as an artist. The bigger you get, and if you transition from sole artist to game company, the more impact the randomness of life can have.

The other lesson is . . . don't knowingly work with other artists of questionable morality and action. If you discover one of your partners is an awful human being, don't defend them and their right to be awful, and continue working with them as before. And, don't be awful yourself.

 

[Dire Bare]

What I don't like about this is that this requires these creators to be entertainers. Some people don't like to engage at that level. It also opens up their personal lives to the public and not everyone wants to share that much. Not everyone is entertaining at all levels either. Someone could be put off from an individuals work based on the cut of their jib, having never seen the quality work itself. I am guilty of that, I don't like live play podcasts so I am put off by anything from Critical Role.

I feel bad on the one hand for up and coming creatives because they are expected to do so much more of the back end work themselves before getting any sort of notice from major companies. This is true in every sector of entertainment. While its nice there are less gate keepers and things are more diversified, not everyone is well versed in the other production tools and skills needed to "make it", whatever that means. Having no interest in that aspect of the industry could really hurt because if one lacks passion for running a social media machine, I would expect it to be done poorly.

I have a theory that this diversification causes another problem: The current landscape generates a glut of unpolished products, this creates a lot of noise in the space and gives possibly too many options. There is an idea called choice paralysis where, when one has too many choices, it becomes hard to make any decisions at all, for fear of making a wrong one. This leads to either making no decision, choosing nothing, or choosing the most recognized product because it has a proven track record, rather than taking a chance.

I feel personally blessed to have too many options, though my wallet is less enthusiastic. And like many hobbies, there has not been a better time, but for their sake, I wish writers could just focus on writing.

If you want to pursue a career as an artist . . . you don't HAVE to be the "entertainer" or social maven . . . . but you are a lot less likely to be successful at any level as a solo artist, and that's been true long before the rise of social media. More traditional artistic career paths exist for a reason. Fancy yourself a writer, but aren't interested in entertaining on YouTube? Shop your work to publishers instead of going it on your own. Whether you are a writer, game designer, cartographer, or visual artist . . . you can still pursue a career in art the traditional way, going through the gatekeepers.

Social media allows you to skip those middlemen . . . but you have to be savvy and willing to leverage social media and channel your charisma as an "entertainer".

Either way, social media "influencer" or traditional publishing . . . . it's hard to make decent money as an artist. It's harder to sustain a livable income over a career. It's why so few manage to pull it off.