I mostly agree with your criticism of GURPS, but I think there's a point to the bell curve. The idea is that increasing your skill level leads to diminishing returns when it comes to regularly difficult things – going from 12 to 14 is an increase in from about 75% chance to about 90%, but going from 14 to 16 then only builds it up to about 98%, and beyond that it doesn't help at all. But the character with 16 can take a -4 penalty and still have about a 75% chance, while the guy with 14 is now down to 50% and the one with 12 is at 25%. Whether that's a good thing or not is a different matter.Ultimately all fortune mechanics are just rough percentile generators. How likely is something to happen? And 3D6 modified by some number or the other isn't an intuitive number, much less a realistic one. When it's going wrong it's not easy to see why it is going wrong or what modifiers to the roll are doing in a particular case. It obfuscates the probabilities and treats that obtuseness as realism. It's not actually simulating anything. And if it isn't simulating anything particularly well, then why should it be excused for game play that comes down to "first side that rolls a critical hit wins"?
There are two issues related to this, though. One is that you get double-whammied on the diminishing returns front. With an average-difficulty skill, 1 point gets you stat-1, 2 points get you stat+0, 4 points gets you stat+1, and every additional 4 points gets you an additional +1. So just as you start getting diminishing returns on each skill level, the costs start going up. That's why the powergamer move in GURPS is to max your DX and IQ and spend as little as possible on skills. If you're spending 100 points on IQ and IQ-based skills, you can either pump IQ to 14 for 80 points and then spend 20 points on getting 20 different Average skills up to 13 for 1 point each, or you can keep IQ at 10 , get 8 skills to 13, and 1 to 11. And given how many frelling skills GURPS has, 20 skills aren't that many.
The other issue is that GURPS is very "generous" with penalties to skills, but far less generous with bonuses. Being unfamiliar with the specific equipment you're using is a -2, for example. This can stack for being different in multiple ways – the game specifically calls out someone used to 12.7mm sniper rifles having a -6 when using a 5.56mm assault rifle (-2 each for unfamiliar caliber, unfamiliar action (bolt action vs self-loader), and grip (bipod vs hand-held)).