24+8*level. I was thinking the 8*level was additional beyond 1st level but I think you are right. 48 instead of 40.
That's what my numbers were based on as well.
I thought it was 50% but it's been so long i'm probably off. What should the monsters chance to hit an average AC PC be?
Anyways using your numbers.
48 hp
60% chance to hit
Assuming about 11 PC damage on an at will power, 16 with encounter.
A straight HP vs DPR analysis has the fight lasting an average of 6.4 rounds on average (assuming encounter powers are all used). I'm with you there.
However, there's a fairly good chance that the attacks taken could easily look something like 4,4,4,3,2,1 = 99 expected damage taken by PC's. (1st enemy doesn't fall till it gets it's attack on the third round). *Or even worse with a bit of cold dice on encounter powers.
I find it important to note it doesn't have to be pre-cordination. As long as each player is adjusting their actions to what their allies have done then that is plenty.