yes, but either you only care about the PHB or you forget about the staggered release. If you want all three core books in 2024 then there really is not all that much time to squeeze all three in after September, which is kinda the earliest a ‘still working on it in May’ can accomplish
Staggered release doesn't have to mean one a month, though if it did, that would still be October, November, December. (and traditionally since 3e I think that matches the pattern more). That could be the END of October, end of November, and end of December, which matches up nicely to the christmas rush as well (end being relative to the holiday of course, the release being before the holiday but nearer the latter end of the month).
Another staggered release to garner the maximum Christmas push (not that WotC is going for that date at all) would be
Nov 19, Dec 3, and Dec 17. It could be staggered by two weeks, or even one, or could do a bigger distance (Two months between each, etc).
It could go for a June release date for the PHB, an August for the MM, and an October or November one for the DMG (and Christmas!).
That could mean they may still be working on some of the core rules, even as they release others.
An even farther fetch idea (though not implausible) is that they DO release a Book in may, such as the PHB, another in August for the con, and finally another before Christmas.