D&D 5E Predictions for D&D 2024?

[pukunui]

The Fallbacks are the band of Adventurer protagonists in an upcoming intro novel from Penguin Press in a few months, "Bound for Ruin". Apparently the characters were designed by the D&D design team and given to Penguin to make a novel as part of some broader campaign.

PR stuff:

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"Licensed by Wizards of the Coast, The Fallbacks: Bound for Ruin introduces a new Dungeons & Dragons adventuring party, The Fallbacks, whose encounters with classic Forgotten Realms locations, villains, and monsters will be chronicled across multiple publishing initiatives. Someday, The Fallbacks might be Faerûn’s finest adventuring party. Right now, they’re the backup plan."

"Designed by the Dungeons & Dragons team, these five adventurers and their monstrous mascot honor the game’s founding classes while putting a contemporary spin on fantasy archetypes. They’re the perfect party for newcomers looking to explore the Dungeons & Dragons universe and for fans seeking new escapades in a beloved setting."

"“We’re so excited for fans to discover these compelling and innovative characters,” enthused Paul Morrissey, publishing lead at Wizards of the Coast. “With The Fallbacks: Bound for Ruin, Jaleigh Johnson wrote a blockbuster novel that serves as a brilliant introduction to The Fallbacks, and a fantastic on-ramp to the world of Dungeons & Dragons.”"

And the book summary:

"The Fallbacks: Bound for Ruin
Tessalynde is an ambitious young rogue who dreams of leading Faerûn’s foremost adventuring party. While the crew she’s gathered isn’t the stuff of legend yet, she’s confident her guidance can get them there."

"The team: Anson, a fighter too stubborn to stay down, even when the odds are stacked against him. Cazrin, a self-taught wizard determined to test her theoretical mettle against the real world. Baldric, a cleric who refuses to tie himself to a single deity when he can trade favors with them all. Lark, a bard with as many secrets as songs. And, of course, Uggie, a monstrous pet otyugh who loves giving hugs and eating trash."

"Their first job: recovering a mysterious spellbook from a lost temple for a hefty payout. Tess hopes this assignment can turn her group of fledgling freelancers into a true team. But when their client is killed, their coin and his murderer both vanish, leaving the party to take the fall."

"Stuck with a sentient, bloodthirsty grimoire and pursued by mercenaries and the undead, this is hardly the mission Tess envisioned. Her crew must save the day, get the gold, and clear the party’s name—which they haven’t even agreed upon yet! With the threats against them mounting, a single mistake will see this party over before it even begins."

"Can this band of mismatched misfits stay together in the face of danger? Or are they bound for ruin?"

The Fallbacks: Novel introduces new D&D Forgotten Realms adventurers

Meet the newest Dungeons & Dragons party in the first epic adventure of The Fallbacks ... Can a band of misfits stay together? Or are they bound for ruin?

nerdvanamedia.com

Oh right. I remember now. That’s the novel that’s likely going to lead into the Vecna adventure, given he’s lurking on the cover and the malevolent grimoire is likely to be the Book of Vile Darkness.

 

[humble minion]

I predict that people will get upset on ENWorld.

 

[Stormonu]

I'm expecting the 2024 books to sell well initially, but interest to drop off rapidly (within about 6 months). This in turns causes WotC to become more tight-fisted in controlling the D&D narrative and makes some blunder that further alienates 3rd party vendors from producing compatible materials. By the end of the year, DM's Guild is gutted with a failed attempt to push sales to D&D Beyond and old PDFs are retracted (again). Near the end of the year, an attempt is made to take the v2014 books unavailable on Beyond, but pushback sees the book returned, though you will no longer be able to use the character builder with prior edition material.

We see at least at least 3 additional books announced, but one of them is cancelled after slowing sales of D&D. One of the remaining books suffers some sort of misprint that is totally embarrassing to WotC's social media in one form or another.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm expecting the 2024 books to sell well initially, but interest to drop off rapidly (within about 6 months). This in turns causes WotC to become more tight-fisted in controlling the D&D narrative and makes some blunder that further alienates 3rd party vendors from producing compatible materials. By the end of the year, DM's Guild is gutted with a failed attempt to push sales to D&D Beyond and old PDFs are retracted (again). Near the end of the year, an attempt is made to take the v2014 books unavailable on Beyond, but pushback sees the book returned, though you will no longer be able to use the character builder with prior edition material.

We see at least at least 3 additional books announced, but one of them is cancelled after slowing sales of D&D. One of the remaining books suffers some sort of misprint that is totally embarrassing to WotC's social media in one form or another.

You're an optimist then

 

[mamba]

I'm expecting the 2024 books to sell well initially, but interest to drop off rapidly (within about 6 months)

given the rest of your prediction, that cannot just be the initial wave of people upgrading having run its course, and sales returning to normal levels…

 

[Stormonu]

given the rest of your prediction, that cannot just be the initial wave of people upgrading having run its course, and sales returning to normal levels…

Yeah, I'm sorta of expecting what I've seen in other edition shifts (not just D&D, but other games & systems) - an initial buy-in including a large portion of casuals trying it for the first time and having their fill after a few months and moving on to something else. Also, the old hands who buy into the new and energetically playing at first but become disillusioned that the changes aren't what they hoped and dropping out/going back to previous material. And also the few die-hards like me that don't see the need to invest in things because they've already got all they need, and it's going to be a pain to convert/adapt new product to their existing game deterring new purchases.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

It's not 2024 yet, so we don't know!

So now it is. Which are they?

 

[UngeheuerLich]

Near the end of the year, an attempt is made to take the v2014 books unavailable on Beyond, but pushback sees the book returned, though you will no longer be able to use the character builder with prior edition material.

I am 99% sure the v2014 books become legacy content as soon as the new books hit the floor.

And if you don't have them and still want them, right now there are one sale of them after the other on D&D beyond.

So how is that scandalous in any way?

 

[mamba]

I am 99% sure the v2014 books become legacy content as soon as the new books hit the floor.

agreed, that pretty much a given

So how is that scandalous in any way?

being scandalous is not a requirement for a prediction

 

[UngeheuerLich]

agreed, that pretty much a given


being scandalous is not a requirement for a prediction

The post I responed to talked about a "pushback" from fans. So I interpreted as "scandalous" for them. The OP talked about some WotC drama.
So maybe I mixed those two in my head.

I think no pushback is warranted as everyone who wanted to get the old PHB had enough time, chances and even disounts to get them.
At that point I actually a warning that the 2014 book are outdated and a button to check, if you are really sure you want that old stuff will result in thr exact same number of sales.