The former is not "scripted" or anything like it. That's the kind of conversations all tables have (I run games at a school!). ...
Which is why I called it typical Session 0 stuff....
So what we have left are some theories about why players made certain choices or the DM building the plot. I have not observed the players making choices that seemed scripted ever, and I've seen every episode, most of them twice. I mean...shopping? Scripted? Have you played D&D? So this sounds like someone's theory, not actual evidence. And the latter is...yeah, the DM prepares story elements well in advance. And on the aftershow Matt Mercer has revealed many, many side-quests or even major plot points, battles, etc. that were prepped but never happened due to player choices (the most famous example is probably the battle with hag who cursed Nott...or rather lack of a battle).
Sam has said several times
explicitly that he is doing something to make it more entertaining. There is no subjectivity or supposition there.
And, yeah. Played D&D since the 1970s with over 1000 different people.
Critical Role has been very clear that the show is not scripted, rehearsed, or pre-planned except to the extent that, yeah, any DM preps their material. Calling a bunch of people, in effect, liars based on basically no evidence other than an unsupported interpretation of the show is not cool.
I don't think they've ever lied - but they also don't say everything.
Again, think about Orion Acaba. Think about how they handled writing his character out initially, and then go back and listen to the episode where they finally resolve the situation for the fans. Really listen to it and tell me if you think that was entirely off the cuff.
How do I think that played out? They determined that Orion was not coming back under any circumstances and talked about how to handle it in story very generally. Matt said he'd handle it and then set the party up. They could see it coming because of the discussion, and they were all well prepared to show the audience a unified message. However, that is about as stilted as I ever heard the cast be (except for the one C3 episode where it seemed like everyone was really confused as to what was going on).
I think Matt drops hints to the players (out of game) much like
most DMs do. Teases. Omens. Reminders of things their characters should know. That leads characters to be prepared for the things that he alludes to. The difference between Critical Role and other games is that some of the things Matt has to manage is not setting players up to make themselves look like fools or fiends in such a public forum. He is masterful at not making someone singled out for not knowing a rule ... even after nearly a decade ...
sigh ... and he is also masterful in not setting them up to do anything really offensive (too often).
They don't have scripts. However, they clearly have a bit more need for caution and preparation to navigate the addition spotlight they're under... and we can see some evidence that they do take precautions.