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WotC's Mearls Presents A New XP System For 5E In August's Unearthed Arcana
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<blockquote data-quote="FormerlyHemlock" data-source="post: 7722626" data-attributes="member: 6787650"><p>Excuse me, don't you mean 2.9 to 6.6? 4.4 to 6.6 is the Medium band only; 2.9 to 6.6 is the Medium/Hard band.</p><p></p><p>Remember, those numbers you're computing ratios for are floors, not medians.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>CR is lossy--this is immediately apparent as soon as you examine the DMG rules for computing CR. There is no way to derive a genuinely reliable difficulty metric from CR because it's already missing too much information. Furthermore, playstyle matters. There's an enormous difference between a T-Rex being run by a DM who roleplays a T-Rex's likely behavior given its goals and low Intelligence, vs. a DM who runs a T-Rex with the mind of a tactical battlecomputer focused on destroying the PCs at any cost. The first T-Rex can be satisfied if you just give it a horse to eat; the second T-Rex is going to leverage its high speed (50'), reach attacks, and grappling bite to strafe the PCs and pick off the weakest-looking member of the party. If it gets lucky on geography, that second T-Rex <em>could </em>potentially TPK a melee-oriented 7th level party.</p><p></p><p>But the things that would enable the T-Rex to do that aren't valued at all by the CR calculation. A T-Rex with 10' move and no grapple would have exactly the same CR by DMG rules.</p><p></p><p>I've tossed around potential metrics in the past, like say a Champion rating which says how many Nth level Champions you'd need on average to have a [better than 50%? essentially 100%? somewhere in between] chance of winning a computer simulation of a given fight/adventure. I haven't found a metric that has enough predictive value to make everyone happy with it, but I am at least pretty sure that it's possible to do much better than CR.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="FormerlyHemlock, post: 7722626, member: 6787650"] Excuse me, don't you mean 2.9 to 6.6? 4.4 to 6.6 is the Medium band only; 2.9 to 6.6 is the Medium/Hard band. Remember, those numbers you're computing ratios for are floors, not medians. CR is lossy--this is immediately apparent as soon as you examine the DMG rules for computing CR. There is no way to derive a genuinely reliable difficulty metric from CR because it's already missing too much information. Furthermore, playstyle matters. There's an enormous difference between a T-Rex being run by a DM who roleplays a T-Rex's likely behavior given its goals and low Intelligence, vs. a DM who runs a T-Rex with the mind of a tactical battlecomputer focused on destroying the PCs at any cost. The first T-Rex can be satisfied if you just give it a horse to eat; the second T-Rex is going to leverage its high speed (50'), reach attacks, and grappling bite to strafe the PCs and pick off the weakest-looking member of the party. If it gets lucky on geography, that second T-Rex [I]could [/I]potentially TPK a melee-oriented 7th level party. But the things that would enable the T-Rex to do that aren't valued at all by the CR calculation. A T-Rex with 10' move and no grapple would have exactly the same CR by DMG rules. I've tossed around potential metrics in the past, like say a Champion rating which says how many Nth level Champions you'd need on average to have a [better than 50%? essentially 100%? somewhere in between] chance of winning a computer simulation of a given fight/adventure. I haven't found a metric that has enough predictive value to make everyone happy with it, but I am at least pretty sure that it's possible to do much better than CR. [/QUOTE]
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WotC's Mearls Presents A New XP System For 5E In August's Unearthed Arcana
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