FrogReaver
The most respectful and polite poster ever
Vex/Nick Math and info
For Vex the next attack hit chances are derived via the formula:
(Chance to Hit) = (Base to hit) + (Chance for Advantage)(Base to Hit) - (Chance for Advantage)*(Base to Hit)^2
Where (Chance for Advantage) = (Chance previous attack hit)
Working out the algebraic expression for each subsequent attacks can be done but is alot of messy algebra and not really needed, since we can recursively use the hit chance produced for the last attack as the 'Chance for Advantage' for the next attack.
Chance to Crit
Chance to Crit = (Base Crit Chance)(1-Chance for advantage) + (1-(1-Base Crit Chance))(Chance for Advantage)
Where (Chance for Advantage) = (Chance previous attack hit)
Comments
For Vex the next attack hit chances are derived via the formula:
(Chance to Hit) = (Base to hit) + (Chance for Advantage)(Base to Hit) - (Chance for Advantage)*(Base to Hit)^2
Where (Chance for Advantage) = (Chance previous attack hit)
Working out the algebraic expression for each subsequent attacks can be done but is alot of messy algebra and not really needed, since we can recursively use the hit chance produced for the last attack as the 'Chance for Advantage' for the next attack.
Chance to Crit
Chance to Crit = (Base Crit Chance)(1-Chance for advantage) + (1-(1-Base Crit Chance))(Chance for Advantage)
Where (Chance for Advantage) = (Chance previous attack hit)
Comments
- I've added Chance to Crit formula and charts
- If the copy paste from excel shows up messy I will do a screen snip to display.
- Between Nick and the bonus action from the dual wielder feat it may not be possible to place the non-vex attack as your 4th attack. If so the sequence of 1st - 4th attacks will simply start and end in the middle of turns. If I find a better way to display this I will.
- Note there was an error in the previous formula I posted: (Chance to Hit) = (Base to hit) + (Base to Hit)^2 - (Base to Hit)^3. This allowed some single attack values to go over the advantage attack values.
- In light of the error I've also revised the charts and examples below.
- Hopefully someone can confirm my math.
| Chance to Hit | ||||
| Base to hit | 1st attack | 2nd attack | 3rd attack | non-vex attack |
| 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.24% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
| 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.90% | 10.98% | 10.99% |
| 15.00% | 15.00% | 16.91% | 17.16% | 17.19% |
| 20.00% | 20.00% | 23.20% | 23.71% | 23.79% |
| 25.00% | 25.00% | 29.69% | 30.57% | 30.73% |
| 30.00% | 30.00% | 36.30% | 37.62% | 37.90% |
| 35.00% | 35.00% | 42.96% | 44.77% | 45.19% |
| 40.00% | 40.00% | 49.60% | 51.90% | 52.46% |
| 45.00% | 45.00% | 56.14% | 58.89% | 59.58% |
| 50.00% | 50.00% | 62.50% | 65.63% | 66.41% |
| 55.00% | 55.00% | 68.61% | 71.98% | 72.82% |
| 60.00% | 60.00% | 74.40% | 77.86% | 78.69% |
| 65.00% | 65.00% | 79.79% | 83.15% | 83.92% |
| 70.00% | 70.00% | 84.70% | 87.79% | 88.44% |
| 75.00% | 75.00% | 89.06% | 91.70% | 92.19% |
| 80.00% | 80.00% | 92.80% | 94.85% | 95.18% |
| 85.00% | 85.00% | 95.84% | 97.22% | 97.40% |
| 90.00% | 90.00% | 98.10% | 98.83% | 98.89% |
| 95.00% | 95.00% | 99.51% | 99.73% | 99.74% |
| Average Accuracy through X Attacks | ||||
| Base to hit | 1st attack | 2nd attack | 3rd attack | 4th attack |
| 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.12% | 5.16% | 5.18% |
| 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.45% | 10.63% | 10.72% |
| 15.00% | 15.00% | 15.96% | 16.36% | 16.56% |
| 20.00% | 20.00% | 21.60% | 22.30% | 22.68% |
| 25.00% | 25.00% | 27.34% | 28.42% | 29.00% |
| 30.00% | 30.00% | 33.15% | 34.64% | 35.46% |
| 35.00% | 35.00% | 38.98% | 40.91% | 41.98% |
| 40.00% | 40.00% | 44.80% | 47.17% | 48.49% |
| 45.00% | 45.00% | 50.57% | 53.34% | 54.90% |
| 50.00% | 50.00% | 56.25% | 59.38% | 61.13% |
| 55.00% | 55.00% | 61.81% | 65.20% | 67.10% |
| 60.00% | 60.00% | 67.20% | 70.75% | 72.74% |
| 65.00% | 65.00% | 72.39% | 75.98% | 77.96% |
| 70.00% | 70.00% | 77.35% | 80.83% | 82.73% |
| 75.00% | 75.00% | 82.03% | 85.25% | 86.99% |
| 80.00% | 80.00% | 86.40% | 89.22% | 90.71% |
| 85.00% | 85.00% | 90.42% | 92.69% | 93.86% |
| 90.00% | 90.00% | 94.05% | 95.64% | 96.46% |
| 95.00% | 95.00% | 97.26% | 98.08% | 98.49% |
| Chance to Crit | ||||
| Base to hit | 1st attack | 2nd attack | 3rd attack | non-vex attack |
| 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.24% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
| 10.00% | 5.00% | 5.48% | 5.52% | 5.52% |
| 15.00% | 5.00% | 5.71% | 5.80% | 5.81% |
| 20.00% | 5.00% | 5.95% | 6.10% | 6.13% |
| 25.00% | 5.00% | 6.19% | 6.41% | 6.45% |
| 30.00% | 5.00% | 6.43% | 6.72% | 6.79% |
| 35.00% | 5.00% | 6.66% | 7.04% | 7.13% |
| 40.00% | 5.00% | 6.90% | 7.36% | 7.47% |
| 45.00% | 5.00% | 7.14% | 7.67% | 7.80% |
| 50.00% | 5.00% | 7.38% | 7.97% | 8.12% |
| 55.00% | 5.00% | 7.61% | 8.26% | 8.42% |
| 60.00% | 5.00% | 7.85% | 8.53% | 8.70% |
| 65.00% | 5.00% | 8.09% | 8.79% | 8.95% |
| 70.00% | 5.00% | 8.33% | 9.02% | 9.17% |
| 75.00% | 5.00% | 8.56% | 9.23% | 9.36% |
| 80.00% | 5.00% | 8.80% | 9.41% | 9.51% |
| 85.00% | 5.00% | 9.04% | 9.55% | 9.62% |
| 90.00% | 5.00% | 9.28% | 9.66% | 9.69% |
| 95.00% | 5.00% | 9.51% | 9.73% | 9.74% |
| Total Crits through X attacks | ||||
| Base to hit | 1st attack | 2nd attack | 3rd attack | non-vex attack |
| 5.00% | 5.00% | 10.24% | 15.49% | 20.74% |
| 10.00% | 5.00% | 10.48% | 15.99% | 21.51% |
| 15.00% | 5.00% | 10.71% | 16.52% | 22.33% |
| 20.00% | 5.00% | 10.95% | 17.05% | 23.18% |
| 25.00% | 5.00% | 11.19% | 17.60% | 24.05% |
| 30.00% | 5.00% | 11.43% | 18.15% | 24.94% |
| 35.00% | 5.00% | 11.66% | 18.70% | 25.83% |
| 40.00% | 5.00% | 11.90% | 19.26% | 26.72% |
| 45.00% | 5.00% | 12.14% | 19.80% | 27.60% |
| 50.00% | 5.00% | 12.38% | 20.34% | 28.46% |
| 55.00% | 5.00% | 12.61% | 20.87% | 29.29% |
| 60.00% | 5.00% | 12.85% | 21.38% | 30.08% |
| 65.00% | 5.00% | 13.09% | 21.88% | 30.83% |
| 70.00% | 5.00% | 13.33% | 22.35% | 31.52% |
| 75.00% | 5.00% | 13.56% | 22.79% | 32.15% |
| 80.00% | 5.00% | 13.80% | 23.21% | 32.71% |
| 85.00% | 5.00% | 14.04% | 23.59% | 33.21% |
| 90.00% | 5.00% | 14.28% | 23.93% | 33.63% |
| 95.00% | 5.00% | 14.51% | 24.24% | 33.98% |
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