Rudy from Alpha Investments: Hasbro prepping to sell WotC (wild speculation)

[Remathilis]

[video=youtube_share;KGPuBOvTIUQ]https://youtu.be/KGPuBOvTIUQ[/video]

VIDEO CAVEATS

* Rudy is a store-owner who runs a video channel devoted to financial speculation on Magic: the Gathering. His primary audience is M:TG players and speculators.
* His presentation style is pretty spastic; it can be a turnoff for some.

The short version of his video: someone he knows (and he admits its flimsy friend-of-a-friend sourcing) believes that since M:TG is more-or-less on a downward slope and plateauing (aka, sales are never getting better than they are now); Hasbro might sell WotC off at its "peak" for maximum return on investment.

Rudy doesn't mention D&D, but its safe to assume that any sale of WotC could include D&D, and D&D alone (even during the streaming 5e Renaissance) wouldn't be enough to shore up flat-MTG sales.

Rudy and his source believes such a sale would take place in 3-5 years; which (at maximum) would be year 9 of 5e's edition cycle.

Now, all of this should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt, (and probably a squeeze of lemon) but its an interesting thought experiment; if Hasbro decided to sell WotC (Magic and D&D together) what would happen to them? Go independent? Snatched up by another media company (my money's on Disney ) or just left to drift? Could WotC sell Magic/WotC and retain D&D? What happens to the digital initiatives and movies?

 

[Jacob Marley]

Now, all of this should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt, (and probably a squeeze of lemon) but its an interesting thought experiment; if Hasbro decided to sell WotC (Magic and D&D together) what would happen to them? Go independent? Snatched up by another media company (my money's on Disney ) or just left to drift? Could WotC sell Magic/WotC and retain D&D? What happens to the digital initiatives and movies?

Actually, I'd bet the other way. That is, Hasbro is not selling WotC to Disney, Hasbro is shedding under performing assets in order to sell itself to Disney (or Comcast, or Sony). It's no secret that Hasbro's goal was to be the next Marvel. And they have tried to follow Marvel's lead. It stands to reason that the ultimate goal is to sell Hasbro. If WotC is plateauing, and there are no viable avenues to leverage the IP, and it will serve as a drag on Hasbro proper - sell it. Of course, like you, I put a lot of salt on the ramblings of Rudy.

 

[delericho]

Rudy doesn't mention D&D, but its safe to assume that any sale of WotC could include D&D, and D&D alone (even during the streaming 5e Renaissance) wouldn't be enough to shore up flat-MTG sales.

Rudy and his source believes such a sale would take place in 3-5 years; which (at maximum) would be year 9 of 5e's edition cycle.

I don't believe it. My understanding of Hasbro's MO is that they're more likely to put under-performing brands into mothballs, with a view to potentially reviving them in some years time. It's not completely unknown for them to sell IP, but it's not terribly common.

And the timing is all wrong, too - if Magic is "on a downward slope and plateauing" then the time to sell is now, not in 3-5 years.

The only caveat I'm inclined to put on that is that maybe Hasbro want to see how the D&D movie does, with a view to keeping WotC if it does really well but selling otherwise. But my gut feeling is that that's putting way too much importance on that movie...

Snatched up by another media company (my money's on Disney ) or just left to drift? Could WotC sell Magic/WotC and retain D&D? What happens to the digital initiatives and movies?

I'd be inclined to agree with Jacob Marley - there's a not-terrible chance that Disney might be interested in buying Hasbro as a whole. Whether that's true or not, I'd bet is more likely to see WotC bought by some other media company than becoming independent again.

To answer your other questions: yes, Hasbro could of course sell (or license out) Magic without D&D, or vice versa. And regarding the digital initiatives and movies, it depends - it depends on the exact details of any acquisition, and also on the details of whatever licensing agreements currently exist (just as, for instance, when WotC acquired TSR, they had to honour Courtney Solomon's right to make a D&D movie).