Wow. One episode and they've already decided. What happens if 3.2 million people that watched the first episode decide not to watch episode two?
HBO ordered a second season of
Boardwalk Empire the day after its ratings were available as well. It's part of HBO's std operating procedure.
HBO fully expects that episode 2 will go down in viewership. For one, it was premiered on a "free" weekend. Shows like this always go down in viewership initially. Indeed, they'll be
very lucky to claw their way back to the opening numbers by season's end. My bet is that they won't manage that in season #1. Season #2 wll be the real test.
For example,
Boardwalk Empire never returned to its opening premiere numbers. True Blood, on the other hand, had a phenomenally successful second and third season, after a comparatively poor first season.
Still, HBO is not about ratings. It is not an advertiser based business model. HBO's business is about retaining current subscribers and reducing customer churn, attracting new subscribers and selling the show abroad -- both to subscribers in foreign HBO networks and to other networks owned by third parties at arm's length.
Did HBO see a surge in subscribers in the month prior to GoT? If they did while their existing customer chrurn remained more or less stable, those new customers are all counted as GoT driven subscribers, after allowing for normal customer churn.
HBO has aleady disclosed that the sales of GoT to foreign networks has netted HBO twice the money per episode that
The Sopranos did. So that's $25 million in the kitty already earned from season #1. In fairness, this increased revenue per episode has a lot more to do with the weak American dollar than it does with the inherent quality of
GoT. But whatever the case, money is money.
The satellite Sky Atlantic channel in the UK premiered
GoT last night as its most watched show, ever. The medieval trappings at the heart of
GoT is expected to play very well to European audiences as well. Put simply,
Game of Thrones is not an American story, set in contemporary America. While that may play against the tastes of many American subscribers -- it is a marketing strength that plays very well to viewers overseas who are
not American but who see their own nation's history being depicted in some way in Game of Thrones.
The quality of the show and its production values further adds to HBO's prestige among directors and actors in Hollywood. This dynamic matters to HBO and always has. HBO likes getting rave critical reviews from
Variety, the
Hollywood Reporter and
Time magazine. It enhances the value of their brand within industry circles and allows them to leverage that cachet in terms of attracting talent to future productions -- and in terms of attracting and retaining subscribers.
So all of this goes into the hopper in terms of their decision to buy another season. Given the front-ended loaded investment for GoT, a second season was
always likely.
And then there is revenue from DVD/Blu-Rays. Sometimes this is seen as marketing and developing a subscriber base for additional seasons. Sometimes its viewed as a profit centre. In the case of GoT, my bet is that it will be both.
Third season? That remains in real doubt. Here's to hoping!
(my brief explanation is so lame now by comparison...)
