WotC $HAS (Hasbro) surges 14.4% at Q1 Earnings; Earnings Call Transcript, First Quarter 2025 Financial Results

aiouh

Explorer
Hasbro, Inc., Q1 2025 Earnings Call, Apr 24, 2025
MD&A

Unknown Executive

[Audio Gap] Well positioned. Our U.S. games business benefits from largely digital or domestic sourcing, maintaining low COGS and healthy margins. We make many of our board games just up the road in East Longmeadow, Massachusetts. Not far away from where Milton Bradley printed his first board games in the 1860s. Wizards has low tariff exposure with sub-$10 million in expected duty for the year.

Most of our domestic supply is produced in North Carolina and Texas, with the balance from Kyoto Japan. Our licensing business is primarily digital or minimum guarantee based with manageable partner exposure. While our Toys segment faces higher exposure we're responding proactively. Our asset-light sourcing model means we can rapidly shift production to help mitigate tariff impacts.

We're accelerating our $1 billion cost savings plan to offset tariff pressures internally while targetive pricing actions remain likely, we are prioritizing key price points and strengthening retail partnerships. We will work to capture market share and shelf space through our growth and optimize brands at critical consumer-friendly price points, particularly $9.99 and $19.99. We want hundreds of millions of families and fans we serve each year to keep experiencing unbeatable value at the shelf, whether it's an all-new home play set for Peppa Pig and our growing family, a play booster for Magic's Final Fantasy Universes Beyond collaboration or a hot new action figure for Marvel's upcoming fantastic for movie.

We're also thinking long term as we play to win especially wit partners. A superpower of Hasbro's This week, we announced the extension of our multi-decade licensing agreement with Disney Consumer Products for Marvel and Star Wars with enhanced category rights in preschool, PLAY-DOH, action and role play. Combined with the Marvel agreement for Match [indiscernible] collaboration with one of the world's most valuable brand portfolios has never been stronger.

Expect more announcements of new partnerships with leading brands across toys, games and video games aimed at all demographics, further solidifying our position for long-term success. Looking ahead, while we remain hopeful for a more more predictable and favorable U.S. trade policy environment, we must acknowledge that even with Hasbro's relative strength and flexibility, logistics are becoming complex and changes in receivables and shipping dynamics present a challenge. Ultimately, tariffs translate into higher consumer prices. potential job losses as we adjust to absorb increased costs and reduced profit for our shareholders.

Our guidance is unchanged, supported by our robust games and and licensing businesses our strategic flexibility but prolonged tariff conditions create structural costs and heighten market unpredictability. Hasbro produces a substantial amount of product in the U.S. and around the world. Has served as an engine of local jobs, creativity and innovation for over 100 years and licenses to hundreds of American companies, employing tens of thousands of American workers across toys, games, entertainment experiences and more.

As such, we fully endorse the Toy Association's advocacy for 0 tariffs on toys and games globally, either on U.S. exports, or on imports. Other toy associations around the the world are quickly joining advocacy efforts. We believe there should be free and fair trade for toys, an industry critical not only to hundreds of thousands of American jobs but also to the joy and developmental well-being of millions of children, families and fans across the U.S. and worldwide.

Before handing it over, let me extend my sincere thanks to our team and partners. Our strong performance amid challenging conditions can be directly attributed to your dedication, agility and and shared ambition. In an unpredictable environment, our greatest assets remain our people our value partners, less to play to win. Now over to Gina.

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. We are off to a strong start in 2025, delivering growth across revenue, profit and operating margin while continuing to execute on our strategic priorities. Our Q1 performance reflects early traction from our play-to-win strategy, ongoing transformation initiatives and a continued focus on cost discipline and profitable growth.

Net revenue in the first quarter was $887 million, up 17% versus prior year, driven by growth in Magic and MONOPOLY GO. Adjusted operating profit increased 50% to $222 million, reflecting a 25.1% adjusted margin, a 5.5 point improvement over last year due to the favorable business mix. Adjusted earnings per diluted share rose 70% to $1.04, driven by top line growth, margin expansion and broader expense management. From a segment perspective, Wizards of the Coast and digital gaming once again led the charge. Segment revenue grew 46% to $462 million with growth across both Magic Table top and digital licensing.

Magic delivered a strong quarter with revenue up 45% driven by healthy demand for recent releases and ongoing engagement in backlog content. The strong performance in Q1 reinforces our confidence in the momentum and stickiness of the business across our core consumers. Our licensed digital gaming portfolio grew 56% in Q1 driven by MONOPOLY GO lapping the minimum guarantee for the final quarter. This game is now celebrating its second anniversary and has announced the next third-party IP collaboration with [indiscernible] and Star Wars, launching in the game on May 1.

Operating margin in Wizards reached 49.8%, up 11 points year-over-year, driven by mix and leverage from top line growth. Consumer Products revenue declined 4% to $398 million slightly better than our original expectations behind strength in licensing. Importantly, the segment's adjusted operating loss of $31 million improved 18% versus last year and adjusted operating margin improved 140 basis points, reflecting progress on our cost transformation or promotional activity.

Through the first quarter, we saw minimal impact from tariffs across our [indiscernible] or customer order patterns. The Entertainment segment declined modestly with revenue down 5% to $27 million, primarily due to deal timing. Segment adjusted operating profit held flat year-over-year at $17 million. Across total Hasbro, we continue to unlock savings from our transformation.

Total adjusted EBITDA was $274 million, up 59% versus the prior year, with margin expansion supported by $22 million of gross cost savings from our operational excellence initiatives. On the cash side, we generated $138 million in operating cash, funded $52 million in strategic investments and returned $98 million to shareholders via our dividend.

We also paid down $50 million in long-term debt, keeping us on track to meet our

[Audio Gap]

In the pacing of some of those. But by and large, I mean, the strength of Wizards and the momentum that we have there in and of itself would have probably taken us over if that red bar wasn't there.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. That all makes a ton of sense. And then maybe help us sort of handicap the risk of the rest of the world? It seems to me that at least one of the incremental surprises coming out of Liberation Day was the heavy-handed nature on the rest of of the world, right, outside China? And so much of your sort of diversification strategy to move out of China into some of these other countries that are now being tariffed to a certain degree, at least that 10% number.

And who knows what's ultimately going to happen in July. But maybe help us understand the CP exposure to the rest of the world, specifically those 10% tariff countries? And how you think about, again, moving production out of China a lot of these countries seem like Safe Haven. And I don't know, how do you even make decisions in this current environment?

Christian Cocks
President

Well, I think that goes back to first principle, just answering your last question, which is don't overreact. Our assumption is that we will get to a a reasonable and logical trade policy ultimately once all the negotiations are done. We're not making any kind of hopeful assumptions that, that happens soon. Our guidance is based off of 145% and 10% reciprocal everywhere else and we're assuming that, that holds for the balance of the year.

If the reciprocal tariffs increased and China did not change, that would be a headwind, obviously, and we would have to take that into account. In terms of how we're thinking about the the rest of world in terms of [indiscernible] not just as a supply a source of supply, we see it as an opportunity. Our business is under indexed a bit inside of Europe. We see a lot of retailer excitement for some of the new product lines we have. The new Peppa Pig products that we have, all the great Marvel stuff that we have coming out.

Magic certainly is looking like it's going to be a winner in markets like Europe and Japan. So we see some potential for upside there, especially as we kind of prioritize where our where our SKUs are going and marketing dollars are going in terms of market upside. APAC likewise, we see some opportunities there.

And then the other thing that we're doing a lot of is starting to look at ODMs in Vietnam, India and even China, in terms of more value SKUs and getting more aggressive about real low price points and driving some breakthrough pricing opportunities for markets like LatAm and Southeast Asia via our everyone plays initiative as part of Play-to-Win so I'd say $145 million and [ TAM ] is our base outlook.

If that changes to the negative, it certainly is a headwind. What we don't necessarily have factored into our guide though is, hey, is there any market upside in terms of kind of shifting SKUs and shifting our marketing priorities. And so we'll play that out over the next couple of months.

Unknown Executive

Yes. With our team, we're really trying to avoid the analysis paralysis and the churn that, that can cause on decision-making. So we're staying very focused on what is known. And right now, what is known as the $145 million andmillion and the $all of the moves that we're making, both within our supply chain as well as with our customer base, we would categorize as no regret moves. Like it's good for us to have a more diversified footprint. So we'll just keep moving on that path.

Operator

Our next question is from Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.

Arpine Kocharyan
UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

You already provided -- sorry to go back to the tariff sensitivity slide, but could you maybe clarify is it fair to assume that those mitigating efforts will include bringing China exposure for consumer products below -- substantially below the 50% mark. I think you had given 40% exposure for China for 2026 before. I guess do you have a sense of where that could be for next year as of today, to the extent you can predict that.

And then in terms of other mitigating factors, whether it's cost saves to find ways to make things cheaper or taking pricing, is it possible for you to detail sort of assumptions there, let's say, making things cheaper could offset x percent of impact and then pricing will offset the the rest to extent it's possible to quantify. I know it's very difficult at this point. You're probably looking at thousand factors.

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Thousand factors, that's probably right. Good questions. I'll start by saying, first, we are a global company. China is going to continue to remain an important manufacturing hub for us. And while our U.S. Toy and game business is roughly 55% of our revenue, 45% of it is okay with getting goods from China.

So China is always going to be a manufacturing hub for us. As we think about our moves from the 50 , to your point, we said back in February, we're on a path to move to under 40 by 2026. We are speeding that up. So we are accelerating our efforts there. It will -- we're targeting to be below that 40% by 2026. We are still kind of nailing down plans and and final product lines what all this is going to mean with with our -- the supplier base, et cetera.

So I'm not going to give you an exact percentage now. But I think that the path we were on to get to 40 by 2026 is going to be faster than that. As you think about then the mitigating levers that we have, again, I'm not going to give you exact dollars because they're all in the way that you laid it out, they're all kind of muddled together. But there's really -- if you go from that gross impact I'll just anchor to the high end of the range of $300 million kind of gross exposure down to the $180 million, what we're seeing is the net impact.

There's really 3 big things to focus on. And we've talked a lot about the supply chain. That's the first big thing and just how we're both shifting products around our existing manufacturing base, how we're managing inventory levels, how we're then kind of accelerating diversification that provides a big mitigating lever for us. The second piece is and how we're managing our product in the broader portfolio. So we have done a significant amount of SKU reduction leading up -- our SKU kind of rationalization as we led into this year.

We're continuing to evaluate what makes sense in this current environment for the U.S. market. So some of our higher-priced items or products that we just don't think are going to be tenable with -- from a profitability standpoint with 145% tariff on we're taking different choices on. So that's kind of the next lever is that we're really focused on product -- all of our DTV efforts and how that influences product cost, we're accelerating there.

And then the 3rd piece [indiscernible] commercial how we're thinking about pricing and reading the pricing actions, how we're managing our allowances with the retailers. Now all -- and when we talk about allowances, those are all the dollars that are sitting gross to net, how we put those either to better use or drop them altogether. So taken together, the supply chain, how we're thinking about product, how we're thinking about commercial and customer pricing. That's what gets us to kind of that $120 million difference between gross to net.

Arpine Kocharyan
UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

That's very, very helpful, Gina. And then one quick follow-up. Have you done any price elasticity of demand work to basically say x percent of growth in pricing is X percent impact on demand. I know it's difficult, right, especially in this environment. But anything you could share with investors to sort of help them think through pricing as a mitigating factor?

Christian Cocks
President

Well, we have. There's not a lot that I can share publicly since most of it's proprietary, definitely think $9.99 and $19.99 are important. We definitely think innovation and having a toy that has a must-have factor to it, something that the kid asks for and is based off of a passion-based purchase is also super important. And then last but not least, having great brands backed by fantastic fan bases and big entertainment moments is also super important.

And so when you look at like what we just announced with Disney, there's no bigger brands in the toy aisle than Marvel and Star Wars. We're thrilled to be extending our multi-decade partnership with them. We've been working with the Disney Disney -- Walt Company since the 1950s I think Snow White was in Cinderella. We're one of our first collaborations together. And I love their road map, what they have coming up in 2026 and what they just announced at their Star Wars event in Japan a week or so ago for 2027, I think bodes pretty favorably for what the future is for that.

And that's just one partnership in a series of partnerships that you're going to be hearing from us over the next several months and quarters that we're going to bring the best brands to our aisles that have the highest pricing power and the surest demand. And I think that's going to position us favorably over the long term.

Operator

Our next question is from Eric Handler with Roth Capital.

Eric Handler
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

You had pretty significant outperformance from MAGIC in the quarter, at least relative to my model. I wonder if you could sort of rank like where all that upside came from?

Christian Cocks
President

So I think it's a couple of things. We did have a bit of an extra set or half an extra set in terms of a remastered set. Our backlist performed very, very well. And then early ordering for [indiscernible] Dragon Storm has been very strong.

So probably the biggest thing was like the backlist over performance. And then Secret Layer has actually been doing pretty well. I mean the whole magic business is just just -- it's difficult to identify one thing. Really, I think what we're seeing on Magic is an expansion of the player the player base and when you expand base, it's just a great opportunity to engage them with more products and kind of create a network effect amongst the players and the collecting community. And we see that only strengthening as the year goes.

Eric Handler
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

And then one question on sort of manufacturing, like how easy is it to just pick up and leave a China manufacturing plant. How much lead time do you need to sort of switch over to another country? And can you do that before peak manufacturing times for the holidays for this year? Or is this more of a 2026 event?

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Good question. Yes, I would say it's more of a 2026 event. I mean, obviously, the moves and the work is happening now. And it depends on capabilities. There are some countries that have the capabilities and the infrastructure in place. So it's just a matter of kind of the development and quality engineering work that needs to to happen shift.

In others, there is brand-new build of capability. So it kind of runs the spectrum in terms of the length of time. But if you kind of anchor back to what we said in February, it was going to take us a couple of years to move from that 50% down to under 40% and now we're saying, Oh, gosh, we're going to get there a lot sooner. So we're speeding up the time to get that diversification.

Christian Cocks
President

Yes. And it depends on the category, Eric. So like for PLAY-DOH, it's sending the boat to send the boat to the U.S. don't send the boat to Italy from Turkey and then send the boat from China to Europe. For NERF, where we have a very large India-based footprint, we are able to like change production but not necessarily where the SKUs are produced.

So we are changing what the SKU mix looks like inside of the aisle for the U.S. so that we can favor India-based SKUs, which maybe are older SKUs but are tried and true. But the benefit there is most of our competition, the white label competition and some of our other named competitors they're solely China-based so we actually could come to market with a pricing advantage versus them.

So it's category by category. I think where you're going to find China-based manufacturing the stickiest is really anything with electronics, anything with super high end Deco -- and then surprisingly, anything made out of phone except except for [indiscernible] But like foam role play, that tends to be a very specialized set of capabilities of Chinese manufacturing.

Operator

Our next question is from Alex Perry with Bank of America.

Alexander Perry
BofA Securities, Research Division

Congrats on a strong quarter. it, I just wanted to bridge some of your comments on the segment guide. So the outlook for CP unchanged, but now factoring in bigger levels of industry declines. I think you were at sort of flat to down 4% last time in the CP top line guide. You raised the Wizards top line guide pretty significantly, op margins come up, but reiterated sort of consolidated full company guide.

I guess is the is the puts and takes like a lower CPE implied op margin offset by the higher Wizards profit contribution like I just wanted to make sure we're sort of clear on the segment puts and takes.

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Yes. Good question. I mean, I think that we spelled out Wizard, so that should be pretty clear of we're rising both. We're rising both -- raising both the revenue outlook and the operating margin outlook. In terms of CP, we're leaving it unchanged, just given the wide range in potential outcome here. So when you think of the net impact of $60 million to $180 million, if it's on that higher end of the range of $180 million you'll see a higher revenue loss, and you'll see those operating margins to your point, they're going to come down in the mid-single-digit range, just as -- we just can't absorb the entirety of the cost impact in the margin structure.

But if you go to the other end of the range, if we net out there, the trade policy kind of starts to calm down a bit if we don't see as much negative reaction from consumers or our customer order pattern mine study. If we end on that lower end of of the range, we stay then within spitting distance our original guide. So that's why right now, we just don't have enough clarity to narrow that down any further.

Hopefully, by the time we get to July, we're able to provide a bit more precision -- it's a pretty wide guide. But I think how you said it in terms of mid-single digits on CP and then you've got the Wizards both the Wizards upside as as well trying to accelerate all of these cost savings in the pipeline, that's what's helping to absorb it.

Alexander Perry
BofA Securities, Research Division

Really helpful. And then just my follow-up question, I wanted to circle back on on price? And what parts of the portfolio do you have the most ability to raise price? Would you ever consider price increases on parts of the portfolio that seem like theylike they have significant momentum right Magic or will it all be sort of concentrated in the to portfolio where you're seeing the most tariff exposure?

Christian Cocks
President

I think we're going to pick and choose. So pricing is ultimately going to be a discussion with our retail partners and ultimately, what price ends up up on shelf is to them. We're going to work hard to try to figure out how to hit those magic price points for the items that we think are most exciting and/or minimize any price increases associated with hot items that we think have a lot of good innovation.

So we've got a lot of cool products coming out this fall. We're refreshing the entire Peppa Pig line with the new baby on the way. We think PLAY-DOH Barbie is the most exciting new innovation to hit the arts and crafts category potentially ever. We think that's a huge collaboration and happy to be partnering with Mattel on it. Likewise, we have a lot of opportunities across board games and games. Magic is really on fire.

I think our default is to not pass on price wherever possible and instead to drive share and drive shelf space opportunities. That said, we are going to have to raise prices inside of 145% tariff regime with China. We're just trying to do it as selectively as possible and minimize the burden to the fans and families that we serve.

Alexander Perry
BofA Securities, Research Division

Perfect. That's incredibly helpful. Best luck going forward.

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Alex. Have a good day

Operator

Our next question is from Stephen Lasik with Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Laszczyk
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division

Curious if you could update us a little bit more on the conversations maybe you're having at this point with retailers going into holiday. I imagine most retailers are trying to stay as flexible as they can for as long as they possibly can ahead of any potential reprieve on the tariff side. Could you just remind us maybe the the timing of how that plays out throughout the year? And maybe when the last possible moment that retailers would need to make a decision around holiday orders as we head into late summer, and I have a follow-up.

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Yes, the very fluid is how I would describe discussions with our retailers. And to your point, right now in this moment where we're sitting in April, the holidays are a long ways away. So when you think about order patterns, what we are planning for, and I think Chris said it in Q&A here already this morning, planning for Q2 to have a pretty material shift in both kind of DI versus DOM as the retailers themselves are managing their inventories so some of that order pattern that anticipated order pattern that we've seen in Q2 does look different.

As we think about the back half of the year, when we kind of model out our revenue, there's not a material change in terms of the back half of the year really represents about still, call it, 60%, 65% of our revenue base. We expect our inventory to then kind of be more moving out from us to our retailers to be more back half loaded into Q3 and Q4. We don't see any material change in how retailers are thinking about the holidays. But to your point, they are making decisions right now.

Do I take it here in May and June? Or do I wait until we're closer to the holiday resets which are going to happen in, call it, September, October. So that's how we've contemplated our phasing. That's what is all embedded in our guide in the range of outcomes but if you think about what CP is going to look like in Q2, it's going to be a down quarter for us just given the change in the order patterns there. And then we kind of build back as we move through Q3, Q4.

Stephen Laszczyk
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division

That's really helpful. And then maybe one on MONOPOLY GO. It looks like revenue has accelerated here in the first quarter. Curious if you could just speak a little bit more to the momentum you're seeing there, what's been working so well. to keep that IP going? And then any updates to your outlook in terms of the decay you're factoring into the guidance?

Christian Cocks
President

Well, I think first and foremost, Scope [indiscernible] made a fantastic game based on a fantastic brand. So it's very sticky. They're having excellent player engagement. They're doing good events with major partners. They just announced a a new one with Star Wars, which I think kicks off in month or so. So they've just been doing a really good job.

And I think they're getting to a more mature place in terms of how much they have to spend in terms of driving new player engagement, new player adoption, which is what which was a favorable aspect of the quarter for us. I think our previous guidance of about $10 million a month in terms of what we'll make is fair for the balance of the year and what we're currently modeling in our outlook.

Operator

Our next question is from Jamie Katz with Morningstar.

Jaime Katz
Morningstar Inc., Research Division

I just want to ask a quick question on POS, which was in the back of of the document the slide deck today. And I guess I'm trying to triangulate the strong revenue performance with sort of weaker market share performance. And I'm wondering if maybe that's a function of just decreasing inventories or working down inventories at retail? Or is there something else maybe that I'm missing?

Christian Cocks
President

We entered the year with pretty lean inventories with our retail partners. And so there is an opportunity there would be kind of what I would say on that.

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Our CP performance in the first quarter was -- the toy part of it was pretty on our planned expectation. As Chris said, we didn't have anything crazy in terms of having a clear inventory and promotional and promotions like that because we came into the year pretty healthy. Licensing was what drove the upside on revenue in the quarter.

Jaime Katz
Morningstar Inc., Research Division

Okay. And then can you talk a little bit about what you guys are seeing at value price points, I think, from other consumer discretionary firms, we're just hearing incremental weakness across that consumer base.

Christian Cocks
President

I don't think we have any real thunderous insights to share with you right now in terms of what the consumer behavior is generally speaking, toys as a category did pretty well in first quarter and Easter kind of went off as expected. So I think people are continuing to buy toys.

Personally, I don't think we're seeing any indication that people are pulling forward like holiday buys or summer buys toys tend to be an occasion-based purchase or a -- just a passion and consumers are behaving normally.

Operator

Our next question is from Kylie Cohu with Jefferies.

Kylie Cohu
Jefferies LLC, Research Division

I'll have the color around CP exposure is super per helpful. But I was wondering to dig into the Wizards exposure a little more. I know it's small. But I do believe you do source some from Japan, but I was curious if there were any other countries to call out or details to add for rest of the world for that segment specifically?

Gina Goetter
Chief Financial Officer

Yes. The exposure for Wizard and Flash Magic is pretty minimal. I mean -- and it's embedded in the Wizards bar in bar in the chart embedded in the Wizards guide. On a kind of 12-month basis, call it $5 million to $10-ish million of exposure, to your point, we do have manufacturer Japan. We do also manufacture over in Europe a bit. The bulk of the manufacturing is coming from the U.S.

Christian Cocks
President

Yes. The only thing in wizards that we import from China is like D&D box sets. So that's actually where -- that's actually a bigger input on the tariff duties I mentioned for for Withers like the Japanese duties MAGIC.

Kylie Cohu
Jefferies LLC, Research Division

Okay. No, that is super helpful. And then just kind of following back up on the POS -- and I think you mentioned that licensing is better than expected. But I was just curious like what were those bright spots specifically that would just be helpful. And kind of what did you see anything around Easter. Obviously, there's a timing shift this year. anything that performs particularly well?

Christian Cocks
President

Well, on licensing, certainly MY LITTLE PONY continued to perform well and had a favorable year-over-year comp MONOPOLY GO is doing quite well. And then in terms of POS for our brands, we had TRANSFORMERS was up dual master -- I'm sorry, Beyblade was up. We had a good quarter in terms of Marvel. Those are probably like the big bright spots for us on POS.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your your participation. You may now disconnect lines.

The most important nugget of information was this information (Please read around the obviously inaccurate transcript glitches):

Christian Cocks
President
Yes. The only thing in wizards that we import from China is like D&D box sets. So that's actually where -- that's actually a bigger input on the tariff duties I mentioned for for Withers like the Japanese duties MAGIC.

So it seems like, while a lot of tabletop companies are being hammered by China related uncertainties, Wizards doesn't seem to produce all that much in China, but are printing their cards in Europea, Japan and US (Cartamundi) so their exposure is relatively low.

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Also it seems like MAGIC is just continuously growing faster than the rest of the Hasbro Gaming Division more every quarter.
 

Attachments

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Too bad there wasn't any comment or breakout on the 2024 D&D books - would have been nice to know.
They mentioned it in February but it was only a footnote as well. Investors and Banks mostly wanted to know about the new hot MAGIC releases. Investors and Analysts seem to be mostly worried about Magic and Marvel Partnerships only.

Hasbro, Inc. (NasdaqGS:HAS)​

Call Participants​

Executives​

  • Christian P. Cocks
    CEO & Director
    Hasbro, Inc.
  • Gina Goetter
    CFO & COO
    Hasbro, Inc.
  • Kern Kapoor

Analysts​

  • Alexander Thomas Perry
    Vice President, Equity Research Analyst
    BofA Securities, Research Division
  • Arpine Kocharyan
    Director and Analyst
    UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
  • Christopher Michael Horvers
    Senior Analyst
    JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
  • Eric Owen Handler
    MD & Senior Research Analyst
    ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division
  • Frederick Charles Wightman
    Research Analyst
    Wolfe Research, LLC
  • Jaime M. Katz
    Senior Equity Analyst
    Morningstar Inc., Research Division
  • James Lloyd Hardiman
    Research Analyst
    Citigroup Inc. Exchange Research
  • Kylie Nicole Cohu
    Equity Analyst
    Jefferies LLC, Research Division
  • Megan Christine Alexander
    VP & Equity Analyst
    Morgan Stanley, Research Division
  • Stephen Neild Laszczyk
    Research Analyst
    Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division

Presentation​

Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Hasbro Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kern Kapoor. Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Kern Kapoor
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. And joining me today are Chris Cocks, Hasbro's Chief Executive Officer; and Gina Goetter, Hasbro's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. Today, we will begin with Chris and Gina providing commentary on the company's performance. Then we will take your questions.
Our earnings release and presentation slides for today's call are posted on our investor website. The press release and presentation include information regarding non-GAAP adjustments and non-GAAP financial measures. Our call today will discuss certain adjusted measures, which exclude these non-GAAP adjustments. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the press release and presentation.
Please note that whenever we discuss earnings per share or EPS, we are referring to earnings per diluted share.
Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during this call and the question-and-answer session that follows, members of Hasbro management may make forward statements concerning management's expectations, goals, objectives and similar matters.
There are many factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements. These factors include those set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K, our most recent 10-Q, and today's press release and in our other public disclosures. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made today to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this call.
I would now like to introduce Chris Cocks. Chris?
Christian P. Cocks
Thanks, Kern, and good morning. We closed 2024 with momentum, beating plan across the board. Our Wizards of the Coast and Digital Games segment had another record year. We saw strong growth across our licensing business, and we delivered the best operating profit margin in company history, eclipsing 20%, including a return to profitability for our Consumer Products segment.
We began last year a healthier, stronger Hasbro with an improved balance sheet and operating structure outlining plans for greater cost savings and reinvigorating the company's innovation engine. We over-delivered, exceeding our guidance on nearly every metric, operating with renewed discipline that we believe positions Hasbro for multiyear growth and margin expansion.
Wizards of the Coast and Digital Games was up 4% year-over-year with an operating margin north of 40% as MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY GO! proved a potent 1-2 punch with both poised for continued growth in 2025. Wizards grew for the 14th time in the last 15 years led by a booming digital licensing business. MONOPOLY GO! maintained its high levels of engagement, capping the year with a star-studded TV campaign and success with its new Tycoon Club.
Baldur's Gate 3 saw solid year 2 use sales, nearly doubling our initial expectations. MAGIC: THE GATHERING had another impressive year. 2024 nearly matched 2023's record year despite fewer set releases. And the MAGIC ecosystem is as healthy and engaged as it's ever been.
We saw year-over-year increases in active players and MagicCon attendance and better-than-expected demand for several tentpole sets, including Q4's release foundations. MAGIC also exhibited strength beyond its tentpoles. We saw strong demand for backlist and Secret Lair, capping off the year with a record-setting Marvel offering, which sold out instantly.
D&D released the first significant update to Fifth Edition since 2014, and closed out the year strong with both the new players handbook and Dungeon Master's guide breaking records for the best-selling D&D books ever. And we also shared more about our video game future, including a new best-selling novel for EXODUS by award-winning author, Peter Hamilton, a top-rated episode on the new hit Amazon Prime Game anthology series, Secret Level, exploring more about the EXODUS universe, and our first gameplay sneak peek that has Sci-Fi video game fans buzzing.
Consumer products licensing was a standout, led by My Little Pony trading cards and our out-licensed brands like FurReal Friends and Littlest Pet Shop saw POS lifts of over 50% in 2024, showing the value of our IP Vault and promise of our partnerships. The LEGO Ideas, Dungeons & Dragons set delighted fans and is nominated for a Toy of the Year award.
We celebrated over 140 location-based entertainment experiences open around the globe, reaching our 50 million visitors annually, making Hasbro one of the most visited brand portfolios in the world. The momentum in our licensing business has been a huge catalyst for Hasbro, with a highly diversified and high-profit revenue stream across over 1,000 partners driving over 4,000 individual collaborations.
Toy and Board Games finished the year on a much stronger footing. Our revamped innovation, marketing effectiveness and retailer alignment drove some nice wins for the holidays. One of the biggest was Beyblade, which saw demand acceleration in Q4 following media support and streaming content to the holidays. We also saw solid growth in TRANSFORMERS, following the animated movie Transformers One, strength in our Marvel Collector range and outperformance in preschool led by Marvel's Spidey and His Amazing Friends. Discounting was down for the quarter across the business. In fact, when factoring in a significant reduction year-over-year in inventory clearance, our mainline toy sales grew in the quarter, indicating momentum as we enter 2025.
2024 wasn't just a good year for Hasbro, proving we can deliver. It also helped up the foundation for our new strategic plan, Playing to Win. Playing to Win focuses Hasbro on what has always made us great, play and partners. Through the power of our brands and breadth of our partnerships, we bring joint community to over 0.5 billion fans across the world whether it's 40 theme park rides for TRANSFORMERS, unique collectibles for JEM AND THE HOLOGRAMS, Epic Quest with D&D, all new video games with GI Joe, or bankrupting your little brother with a well-timed hotel on Boardwalk in MONOPOLY.
Our focus on play and partners is clarifying. It has allowed us to exit noncore businesses like E1 film and TV, reduce our content budget by over 95%, while increasing our active production pipeline for Hasbro IP by 15% and take out over $600 million of costs from our P&L in the process.
Our balance sheet is stronger. Our lineup of partnerships is the best it's ever been, and our focus has allowed us to lean into high-profit, high-growth areas like Digital Games, where our brands have proven resonance and our diversified digital revenue streams allows us to self-fund the efforts.
Play is the foundation for our incredible portfolio of brands, a library of thousands of marks spanning our 164-year history. From The Checkered Game of Life, created by Milton Bradley in 1860, to the first mass-marketed toy in history, Mr. Potato Head, 1952 to cutting-edge video games like Baldur's Gate 3.
What distinguishes us is the breadth and depth of our portfolio. Hasbro generates nearly 70% of our revenue in categories outside traditional toys for kids, games, digital licensing, compounds. While we have powerhouse brands for children, over 60% of our audience is 13 or older, representing the lifetime fandom we create with consumers of all ages, whether it's collecting your first Spidey and Friends action figure, to completing your collection of super-rare Mox cards for MAGIC: THE GATHERING.
Our audience diversity, the lifetime nature of our fandom and the diversification of our brand portfolio gives us conviction to invest in the future of play. As strong as our brands are, our partners are the rocket fuel that helps them go supersonic. In the last 3 years, our licensing business has grown by 60%. Hasbro is the third largest entertainment licensor on the planet and the biggest in Digital Games, by far the fastest-growing entertainment category of the last decade.
Across Digital Games, occasion-based entertainment, and toys and merchandising partners, our brands are expected to see over $4 billion in incremental partner-led investments over the next 3 years. Our upcoming collaborations span blockbuster movies, themed hotels, cruise ships, quick-service restaurants, category-expanding toy partnerships and, of course, AAA video games. Our approach thrives on some of the most expansive inbound partnerships in the industry.
Today, I'm pleased to announce 2 more. First off, today, we are unveiling an all-new licensing collaboration with Mattel, combining the creativity of PLAY-DOH with the empowering play of Barbie. PLAY-DOH Barbie allows children to unlock their inner fashion designer, creating PLAY-DOH fashions with amazing ruffles, bows and realistic fabric textures, all made with every kid's favorite dough for a never-before-seen creativity experience.
Second, we have many new digital collaborations in the works, but I'm especially excited to announce this one today, being a personal fan of many of this team's games. Hasbro and Saber Interactive will be collaborating on an all-new video game partnership developed by the team behind 2024's megahit Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine II, combining high-octane, single-player action an amazing multiplay with Saber's Swarm tech. This new AAA title, based on one of our tentpole IPs is sure to be a hit.
Playing to Win is grounded in 5 strategic building blocks. First, Hasbro's unique advantage in aging up, driving play experiences for fans of all ages, whether it's through major retail partners like Amazon, Walmart, Smiths or Target or via our growing direct initiatives, including Hasbro Pulse, Magic Secret Lair and D&D Beyond.
Second, leadership in digital play. We've been investing in video games for over 7 years through our portfolio of over a dozen projects in various stages of development, coupled with 100-plus licensing partnerships.
I'm excited to show off our first project, EXODUS, to the world when we launch it in 2026. James Ohlen, the creative visionary behind EXODUS has triggered of success. Serving as a design leader for Baldur's Gate 1 and 2 as well as the Creative Director during the golden age of BioWare, who helped to helm the creation of the Dragon Age and Mass Effect franchises.
Our third building block, Everyone Plays, will drive Hasbro's expansion in fashion, dolls and girls collectibles and leverage our much improved supply chain efficiency to better serve emerging markets and value channels globally. You'll see some early payoff in these areas from audience expanding play and collectible innovation later this year with some new announcements we have in store next week at New York Toy Fair.
Partnership, our fourth building block will continue to be a huge part of our story with projects in the work spanning everything from new toy collaborations, new universes beyond partners with MAGIC, new video game partnerships, AI-enabled games and toys and major new location-based entertainment investments from partners around the world.
Our fifth and most important strategic building block is profitable franchises. This doesn't mean just driving our brands through innovation and partnership. It means operating them with excellence from our supply chain to our managed cost discipline to our retail execution. As part of this pillar, I'm pleased to announce we are increasing our cost target from $750 million by the end of 2025, a goal we are well on our way to achieving, to $1 billion in total annual gross savings by 2027, with 50% flowing to the bottom line.
Playing to Win marks an important pivot for the company, a return to growth. In 2025, we are projecting modest revenue growth, coupled with continued margin expansion. Through 2027, we are projecting a mid-single-digit revenue CAGR with continued operating profit improvement, powered by a killer entertainment slate, all-new toy innovation and major launches from our multiyear digital investments. When we play to win, we play to grow.
In 2025, the first elements of our multiyear strategy will start to play out. MAGIC is poised to have its biggest year ever as we launched 3 Universes Beyond sets, starting with the blockbuster Final Fantasy in June. Featuring characters, items and moments from all 16 mainline games of the beloved series, Final Fantasy has the potential to be our biggest MAGIC release yet, and we'll continue to drive best-in-class partner IP across the MAGIC play system with Spider-Man and a yet-to-be disclosed Universes Beyond set in the past. Stay tuned for more details at this weekend's MagicCon in Chicago.
And going beyond cards, we expect MAGIC's reach to grow wider than ever through content like the newly announced animated Netflix series, and live action film and TV series from Legendary Entertainment.
D&D is also set up to continue its recent momentum. This week, we released the widely anticipated 2025 Monster Manual with strong initial orders. We'll continue to build the D&D community, leveraging D&D Beyond as a marketplace with many third-party publishing releases set for the first half. And the future of D&D's wider franchise ambitions is strong with all new video games and new entertainment on the horizon, including a new streaming series in development, the Forgotten Realms from Netflix and executive producer, Shawn Levy.
And in Board Games, the team is focused on driving growth through redesigned classics celebrating MONOPOLY's 90th anniversary, including our all new expansion packs and bringing to market fun new family games like CONNECT 4 Frenzy and Rebounce that we're unveiling at Toy Fair next week.
Last but not least, we have major new innovations across our toy portfolio, whether it's fun new fashion collectibles, starting at $3.99 with Furby, amazing new action play with MixMashers allowing you to mix and match to customize your favorite Marvel, Star Wars and Transformer superheroes or exciting new water-based outdoor play with Super Soaker. Across price points, play patterns and age ranges, Hasbro is Playing to Win.
Playing to Win marks a new phase for Hasbro. One focus not just on cost discipline and improved profitability, but on growth and expanding our brands across new categories and new partnerships.
I'll now turn over the call to Gina Goetter, our CFO and COO, to share details on our 2024 results and provide guidance for 2025 and beyond. Gina?
Gina Goetter
Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. 2024 marked a year of significant improvement for Hasbro across several financial and operational measures. It was a year of putting wins on the board and resetting the foundation behind a streamlined and profitable portfolio.
We continue to grow revenue in Wizards, while meaningfully improving the trajectory of our Consumer Products business. We eliminated complexity across our product portfolio and within our operations, allowing us to streamline our cost structure and maintain healthy inventory levels.
The actions we took at the end of 2023 improved our cost structure via lower shipping and warehousing costs, scale advantages across our suppliers and reduce inventory obsolescence cost. And we built new capabilities and design to value to optimize product design, ultimately driving down costs while improving the play experience.
Altogether, we delivered $227 million of net cost savings and achieved a record operating margin. With an asset-light and operationally efficient business model, we strengthened cash flow, allowing us to reduce debt and return cash to shareholders with our category-leading dividend.
Looking at our results more closely, starting with Q4, total Hasbro revenue was $1.1 billion, down 3% excluding the eOne divestiture. Including eOne, revenue declined 15%. Wizards revenue declined 7%, with the decline almost entirely driven by having one fewer set release in the quarter.
As Chris mentioned, the momentum on the core business remains healthy as evidenced by growth in backlist and Secret Lair. MONOPOLY GO! contributed $38 million of revenue behind robust player retention and marketing effectiveness.
Consumer Products declined 1% behind exited brands and reduced closeout volume. We continue to see growth in licensing and benefited from lower promotional discounts across retailers.
Q4 adjusted operating profit was $113 million for an adjusted operating margin of 10.2% over a 14-point improvement year-on-year, driven by the lap of recurring items, favorable business mix and supply chain productivity. Q4 adjusted net earnings were $64 million with diluted earnings per share of $0.46, benefiting from improved profitability and tax rate favorability.
For the full year, total Hasbro revenue was $4.1 billion, down 7%, excluding the eOne divestiture. Including eOne, revenue declined 17%. Wizards revenue grew 4%, benefiting from the success of MONOPOLY GO! and solid performance from MAGIC. The profitable mix of revenue led to a record profit margin for Wizards at 41.8%, almost a 6-point improvement over last year.
Consumer Products revenue was down 12% as growth in our licensed Consumer Products business was more than offset by exited brands, reduced closeouts and softer volume, namely across NERF and Star Wars. Despite this segment decline, we saw growth in several brands, including Beyblade, Furby and My Little Pony, and we continue to improve the profitability of the segment resulting in a 6% adjusted operating margin or 6.7 point improvement versus last year.
On a reported basis, Entertainment segment revenue declined by 88% given the sale of eOne. Absent this impact, revenue declined 4% and finished within our expectations.
Total Hasbro adjusted operating profit was $838 million, up 76% versus last year, reflecting the lap of nonrecurring inventory costs, favorable business mix and cost savings. We delivered $370 million of gross cost savings and $227 million of net cost savings and continue to track ahead of schedule to achieve the $750 million savings goal by the end of 2025.
Adjusted net earnings of $563 million was up $214 million versus last year, leading to a $4.01 earnings per diluted share.
Operating cash flow for the full year was $847 million, an improvement of $122 million, and we ended the year with $695 million in cash on our balance sheet, after investing about $200 million back into the business to support organic growth.
Additionally, we reduced debt by $83 million in Q4, bringing our gross leverage ratio to 3.2x adjusted EBITDA and our net debt ratio to 2.5x. We also returned $390 million of captital to our shareholders via dividends.
Looking to 2025 and beyond, we are excited to launch our updated strategy, Playing to Win, which is anchored in play and partnerships, while continuing to drive additional excellence. Playing to Win is centered around 5 key strategic building blocks, targeted operational transformation initiatives and an investment framework that prioritizes spend and resources across our major brands, channels and markets to deliver strong financial returns.
The 5 building blocks that Chris described reinforce each other. And when coupled with our unmatched IP and improved capabilities drive a positive flywheel that serves to reinforce Hasbro's competitive advantage and positions us for growth. Underlying the strategy, we are planning for the toy industry to be relatively flat over the next 3 years with growth peaks driven by strength in the broader entertainment slate.
Emerging market growth and aging up of the consumer will influence our innovation priorities and the broader video gaming market will continue to accelerate, driven by the next generation of console releases.
Through Playing to Win, we expect Hasbro's business mix to continue shifting, aligning more with how we see the future of play patterns. We expect through 2027 that our digital and partner-driven licensing will represent about 1/4 of the corporate revenue mix. We also expect the broad definition of gaming to grow its contribution to our revenue mix through this period, including board games, trading cards, digital licensing and video games.
This combination of growing high-margin revenue streams, while our brand scale through partnerships, will sustain our investment towards our biggest opportunities, including MAGIC and self-publishing video games, as well as continue to support the innovation pipeline for toys.
As we think about the major brands, channels and markets in which operate, a new prioritization framework will ensure we're driving the best returns on our investments. Growth brands with the highest growth in margin potential like MAGIC and PLAY-DOH and new business opportunities like our self-published video games, including 2026's release, EXODUS, will receive higher incremental investments.
Opportunities with a lower growth or margin profile will see more targeted investments to maintain share and optimize profitability. And for brands like NERF, which are facing structural category headwinds, the focus will be towards reinventing the business model to ultimately put it back on a path towards renewed profitability.
In addition to having the right strategic building blocks and prioritization framework in place, it is also imperative we maintain operational rigor and continue to transform the business. We have multiple initiatives underway across the organization, including the continued modernization of our IT and back office systems to speed up decision-making and reduce costs, improving the agility of our design process to bring products to market faster and the evergreen initiative of driving supply chain cost productivity ahead of inflation.
The transformation we have driven over the past 2 years has put us well on our way to hitting our goal of $750 million of gross cost savings through 2025 and we now have line of sight to reach $1 billion in savings by 2027. This step-up is a result of changing how we work and building on the significant progress we have already made with supply chain.
The expected cost savings, coupled with a pivot back to revenue growth, will drive healthy profit and cash flow, allowing us to stay committed to our capital allocation priorities of investing in the business, paying down debt and returning cash to shareholders via the dividend. As cash flow increases in 2026 driven by video game monetization, we will create the opportunity for an even more balanced capital allocation framework.
Turning to guidance for 2025. We expect total Hasbro revenue to be up slightly year-over-year on a constant currency basis. Total Wizards' revenue is forecasted to grow between 5% to 7%, driven by expected strength in MAGIC on the back of 3 Universes Beyond set releases. Given the set timing, we expect stronger growth quarters in Q1 and Q4.
Licensed digital games will be flat as contributions from a full year in MONOPOLY GO! will offset the moderation of Baldur's Gate 3. Wizards' operating margin will be between 39% and 40% with a step down from last year, largely driven by the increase in royalty expenses from MAGIC, Universes Beyond tentpole sets.
Consumer Products revenue will be flat to down 4%. This includes a roughly 4-point headwind from 2 businesses: NERF, due to the structural category declines, and Star Wars on the back of a light entertainment slate. We expect closeout volume to be relatively flat year-over-year and exited brands will not be a material headwind.
From a phasing standpoint, primarily due to late Easter, we expect Q1 revenue to be down mid- to high single digits before demonstrating sequential year-over-year improvement. Consumer Products operating margin will be between 8% and 10%, with a step-up driven by ongoing cost savings. Given the volume stability across most business lines, we expect to see minimal impact from volume deleverage.
Entertainment revenue is expected to be flat with an operating margin of approximately 50%. Total Hasbro adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be $1.1 billion to $1.15 billion, the increase versus last year is primarily driven by the continued profitability improvement in consumer products.
Our guidance includes the anticipated impact of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada imports as announced on February 1. It also reflects mitigating actions we plan to take, including leveraging the strength of our supply chain and potential pricing.
We also continue to diversify our manufacturing footprint to create optionality as we navigate the trade environment, and we are on a path to move from 50% of our U.S. toy and game volume originating from China to under 40% over the next 2 years.
We expect to spend approximately $250 million in project capital with half to support our internal video game development and the balance to support organic growth in toy as well as the various transformation initiatives across the organization. We expect operating cash to be roughly flat and to sufficiently fund our existing capital allocation priorities. And the Board has declared our next quarterly dividend payable in March.
As we look to the Playing to Win strategy out beyond 2025, we expect total Hasbro revenue to grow at a mid-single-digit growth rate from 2025 through 2027 with the acceleration driven by momentum in MAGIC, a stronger entertainment slate in toys and the launch of internally published video games, starting with Exodus in 2026.
We expect Hasbro operating margin to expand on average by 50 to 100 basis points annually with the favorable revenue mix shift, improved toy profitability and continued cost savings towards our $1 billion goal. We also expect to reach our gross leverage target of 2.5x or better by 2026 through a combination of debt paydown and EBITDA growth.
In closing, after significant progress in our turnaround over the last 2 years, Hasbro is stronger, focused and ready to execute our latest strategic plan. We have developed a strategy that capitalizes on our unique strengths and market advantages and is focused on creating profitable growth that positions us to drive long-term value for all of our stakeholders.
Special thank you to all of our employees, partners and customers for your thought leadership and partnership as we turn the page to this next chapter and play to win.
And with that, we will take your questions. Thank you.

Question and Answer​

Operator
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Megan Clapp with Morgan Stanley.
Megan Christine Alexander
Maybe we could start, I just wanted to ask about the Consumer Products top line guide. Excluding that 4-point headwind from NERF and TRANSFORMERS (sic) [Star Wars], you're implying the rest of the portfolio is kind of flat to up 4%, which is pretty strong. Can you talk about what your expectation for industry POS is? I think you said flat over '25 to '27. Is that consistent in '25 as well? And then how are you thinking about market share performance? If I look at your performance in the fourth quarter, it does seem like you still lost a bit of share in most of your categories. If you could just kind of contextualize how you're thinking about the industry and market share ex those 2 brands, NERF and Star Wars, that would be helpful.
Christian P. Cocks
Thanks for the question. I think Gina and I will tag team on it. Yes. I think we're thinking the toy industry is in the plus or minus 1% for this year, so call it flattish. That assumes our expectations on what's going on with the China tariffs as announced on February 1, but doesn't really factor in anything else that might happen in terms of government policy over the next couple of months because that's a little bit of an unknown.
We think trading cards and building blocks are probably the drivers of the toy category right now. Outside of that, the balance of categories are probably down low single digits. And as we look at our own portfolio, we feel pretty good about what we see in terms of our entertainment slate. Captain America had a pretty good opening weekend. We saw some pretty nice POS lifts. So we're seeing the business respond. We've got a lot going on inside of preschool that we'll be announcing at Toy Fair that we weren't prepared to talk about today, but we think that those will have some lifts. We like some of the things that we're doing inside of girl collectibles. We also like a lot of the price point innovation we've been driving across our supply chain.
So I think you're going to see Hasbro be a lot stronger at sub-$10 and sub-$20, which is an area that I think we've under-indexed and been a little off trend on, but we think will be very on trend this year. And then when you add on top of that, so that's CP, what's happening in Wizards, MAGIC should have a very strong year. And as we said, we think our licensing segments overall across digital and CP will probably be roughly flat this year, but still a nice contributor of profit for us.
Gina Goetter
Megan, build on that -- morning, by the way. My build, if you look at the couple of businesses that we called out in our prepared remarks, that are impacting the guide but also really impacted our Q4 performance, our Star Wars and then in NERF. So when you -- from a share perspective in Q4, those 2 had a disproportionate drag.
The other thing to keep in mind over the course of the year, but then really in Q4 as well, we had less closeout volume. So we've talked about this on a few past calls. Overall, for the year, our closeout volume was down about $100 million of revenue. It was about $40 million down in Q4. That's very good for us from a profitability standpoint, but it absolutely does impact the top line and ultimately, the share results that you're seeing.
So as we look into '25, closeouts will be relatively flat year-over-year. We're not expecting that huge kind of pull-down that we saw in 2024. It will be relatively flat. But the share -- we'll have share gains in many categories, but we'll continue to be challenged with Star Wars and NERF.
Megan Christine Alexander
Okay. Understood. And then maybe a kind of two-part follow-up. First is just a little bit of a clarification on the medium-term guidance. So you talked about 50 to 100 basis points of average margin expansion per year. You're guiding to over 100 here in 2025 at the midpoint.
So the first is just a clarification. Is that 50 to 100 bps per year cumulative, i.e., 150 to 300 over 3 years? Or is it that the goal is to grow 50 to 100 basis points per year kind of regardless of the starting point? And then the second part of the question is, how should we think about the self-publishing video games as those start to become a bigger part of the business? How should we think about how that is embedded into your margin expansion goals?
Gina Goetter
Yes. Great question. Great question. So how you phrase the margin accretion? I will say it's cumulative. So every year, we're looking to grow 50 to 100 basis points. So it will get over to a 3-point span over the course of our strategic plan. From how video game starts to play into it, so when you think of what we've been doing, we've been capitalizing all of the expense for that development.
And then when the video game launches, we will see upticks in revenue from the unit sales. We'll see upticks in absolute profit dollars from the profit driven by those unit sales. And then we will see a nice infusion of cash. The offset, though, is in the margin because we will start to depreciate out that expense that we've been capitalizing. So some of the give-back in margin will come as a result of the video game monetization, but ultimately, we'll be in a better profit situation and a better cash flow situation.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan Chase & Company.
Christopher Michael Horvers
So first, a follow-up on the prior question. I know you mentioned Captain America starting to see some pickup on the POS side. But there are a lot of questions that perhaps there was some holiday pull forward in general merchandise, February weakness, Hispanic consumer, weather, so on and so forth. So could you possibly peel out the business in the U.S. as what you've seen in January and February a bit more?
Christian P. Cocks
Sure. We're actually having a decent start to the year. I can't go into too many details because this is the Q4 call as opposed to the Q1 call. But generally speaking, our thesis for the year is playing out in what we've seen in the first 6 weeks of the year.
Gina Goetter
Yes, Chris, my build was -- we had a -- we felt really good about how the holidays played out for us. We didn't feel like we had a significant amount of pull-in or weird merchandising activity that was happening in Q4. As we look at Q1, in my prepared remarks, I talked about how Q1 will be down mid- to high single digits. And what we're seeing play through so far is tracking with that.
Christian P. Cocks
Generally speaking, our retail inventory around the world is flat to down as we entered the quarter. Yes, that's underlying the question, too.
Gina Goetter
Yes, pretty clean.
Christopher Michael Horvers
Got it. And then as we think about the MAGIC business and the 2 big launches this year, maybe -- could you contextualize them relative to your experience on an individual basis relative to the experience that you saw in Lord of the Rings, please?
Christian P. Cocks
Yes, sure. So certainly, we think Final Fantasy has a good chance of taking the crown of best-selling MAGIC set in history. I'll give you a very recent example. Just the other day, we launched preorders for gift bundles for Final Fantasy, Commander gift set and gift bundles. For Lord of the Rings, those took a week to sell out. For Final Fantasy, it took an hour to sell out. So we think Final Fantasy will do pretty well.
I don't think you can necessarily quantify that absolutely, but there absolutely is a lot of demand. And then Spider-Man, we feel like that will do well. Now I think the important thing to note on Spider-Man is it's a little bit of a different complexion of a set in terms of what's incorporated into it. Final Fantasy and Lord the Rings had Commander decks, which usually constitute a fairly big hunk of assets total volume. Spider-Man will be standard-only cards. There won't be any kind of precon decks. So that will make it a bit smaller.
But again, when we did our first Secret Lair drops for Marvel in December, those things sold out within minutes. So we think both of these releases have very strong innate demand, both from existing MAGIC players and just as importantly, from adjacent fans who we think could be new to MAGIC, and that's what we think the real power of Universes Beyond is, which is building the MAGIC installed base.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Eric Handler with ROTH MKM.
Eric Owen Handler
Gina, I wonder if we could dig in a little bit on your medium-term guidance. So you're expecting a mid-single-digit sort of CAGR. So if 2025 is going to be, let's call it, flattish on a constant currency basis, toys, you expect to be flattish for the next several years. I'm not sure if you're thinking that MAGIC will have a tough comp in 2026. But like what's going to be driving this acceleration? Is it all video games and new licensing or just sort of help me with the road map here?
Gina Goetter
Yes. Eric, good question. So there's really 3 things that I'll point to that drive the uptake. So first is MAGIC. So MAGIC, you just heard -- you could hear Chris smiling as he was answering that question, so MAGIC is growing We're anticipating a strong year this year, but we are also anticipating continued strength as we move into '26 and '27. We see the pipeline. We see the momentum on the business, the fundamental health of our fan base. So we feel good that MAGIC is set up for a good runway of growth. So that's the first thing.
The second thing on toys, to your point, this year, flattish, slightly down. Next year and into 2027, we have a much stronger entertainment slate that benefits our businesses and our brands more so than we're seeing this year. So that will take toy and the CP business positive as we move through '26 and '27.
And then the third piece is the video game launch in EXODUS. That will become the third kind of peak that we see. And depending -- we haven't nailed down the specific launch date of EXODUS, but it will happen at some point in 2026. So that will create a little bit of lumpiness of growth depending on when that launch timing is set.
Christian P. Cocks
Yes. So I would characterize our growth expectations as fairly balanced across the business.
Eric Owen Handler
That's helpful. And also in terms of your video games, what is sort of a normalized cadence? And how do you think about in-house versus outsourcing your development? And then is M&A in play here in terms of possible studio-type deals?
Christian P. Cocks
Well, I think a couple of things. First off, good morning, Eric. So you should expect 1 to 2 releases from us per year from '26 to '30 is about what we're thinking. And I think we've said that for several years now. I think you should also expect us to continue to lean into licensing. Our portfolio of -- our pipeline of licensed products and digital has grown from 95-ish this time last year to about 110, 115 projects in development or published this time this year.
I think the new news is that we're going to lean in more to JVs and partnerships as we think about our self-published portfolio for the next 5 to 7 years. The Saber Interactive announced being an example. That's a co-publishing deal between the 2 companies. We will be -- we will each be the publisher of record. We will use the Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine II team to develop the product. And we think that's a pretty good model. It's a nice kind of risk adjustment for us. It helps us to be able to access some of the best talent in the industry and helps to be able to unlock some of our IP in new ways.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.
Frederick Charles Wightman
I just wanted to follow up on the midterm outlook in the context of the '25 guidance. And I understand sort of the top line ramp, but I want to make sure I'm clear on sort of what the margin offset is because to Megan's earlier question, it seemed to imply a deceleration as we move throughout period, even though the top line is accelerating. So is it literally just that some of the capitalized costs hit the P&L? Is it investment in some of these video game services or capabilities that are internal? Like what is sort of the margin offset in '26 and '27?
Gina Goetter
Yes, good question. So largely, it is the capitalization. And if you look at the 2 businesses, our CP margin, we've guided to '25, 8% to 10%. We expect to continue to see that moving north, moving upwards as we move into '26 and '27. We've been committed and making progress towards getting to that, call it, low teens percentage, and that is what we've planned over the course of the next few years.
The Wizards business, that's where you'll see some of that margin pullback as that capitalization plays through. But I mean, keep in mind, our Wizards business is posting record-level margins. So even a slight -- that capitalization coming through still keeps the margins in the mid- to high 30s.
Frederick Charles Wightman
That makes sense. And then on tariffs, I just want to make sure I'm clear on sort of what the assumptions are. It sounds like you guys are assuming that Mexico and Canada come back in the not-too-distant future. Can you maybe just order of magnitude, how the different buckets hit the -- are contemplated for guidance across the 3 markets?
Gina Goetter
Yes. You've got it right. We've basically taken what the administration put out on February 1, and quantify that and put it into our guidance for the year. Really, it's a China story for us. We don't source from Canada. We have minimal sourcing coming out of Mexico. So we're really watching that China rate. So that's what we baked in.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.
Arpine Kocharyan
Just before we focus on 2025, I was just wondering, would you say this new strategy is more of a recap of where you've been headed, which is more of a kind of a gaming company that makes some toys versus toys and games company before? Or some material lineup of products or partnerships, maybe in the digital space or other areas that you're not ready to talk about today that sort of gave you the confidence to issue formal outlook here on the top line?
Christian P. Cocks
I would think it's fair to say we've been trying to project our strategic thinking for several quarters now, and this is an articulation of it and summation of it. We're proudly a toy company, but we think we're a very different toy company than most other toy companies. We're huge in the games. We're very big in the licensing. And we've got a fantastic toy portfolio, which serves as the first handshake with consumers.
So I think there are some important distinctions. I think I'm excited about getting back into more girl-oriented categories in a bigger way. I'm excited about going after emerging markets in a much bigger way. I've always been excited about our digital ambitions. I think we're well ahead of most of our traditional toy industry peers. And so I think that differentiates us.
You look at the nature of our 3 businesses, licensing is up big time. It's a huge margin driver for us. It's relatively inexposed (sic) [unexposed] to like some of the tariff drama that's going on right now. Games tends to be a nice business for us that has a great secular growth pattern. And toys, while the category has been down for the last couple of years post-COVID, it's traditionally a very stable business, and we've got some great brands. And I think the team that we put in place in toys over the last 18 months, you're going to see some nice wins from them over the following 18 months as you really -- as they put their mark on our product portfolio.
Arpine Kocharyan
Great. Great. So to boil it down to profitability a little bit, and this might depend on what you assume for debt paydown. But your gross debt-to-EBITDA target of 2.5x could imply something like $1.3 billion of EBITDA by next year. And if I were doing the math around D&A right, depreciation and amortization, we're looking at over $5 of earnings by 2026. I guess do you have pushed back to that math? And if yes, what other puts and takes we should keep in mind?
Gina Goetter
Good question. I mean, your EBITDA math is not far off. So probably -- you're getting to that right spot. And again, with the video game and the monetization of that is a margin hit, but it's going to positively impact our EBITDA.
Earnings per share is probably running a little hot in '26 from what you're calculating. A couple of things just to keep in mind as we move through this year '25 and into '26. One, our tax rate is stepping back up. So we had a few things that went our way here at the end of '24. We're not planning for those to happen again '25 and '26.
And then the second thing is interest expense. So that was also something in '24, we were sitting on a fair amount of cash as we were waiting to pay off that note in November. So we won't have that same kind of interest income and we're more exposed then to the interest expense. So that is another thing that goes against us from an EPS standpoint as you think about '25 and '26.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.
James Lloyd Hardiman
So I actually just wanted to continue on that same thinking with some of the math, Gina, just given sort of how DNA might skew operating income the next few years. As I think about 2027, right, the Playing to Win outlook, where should we be landing in terms of EBITDA? I was getting to something in the $1.3 billion, $1.4 billion range but that didn't really account for the step-up in D&A. So should it ultimately be higher than that number as we think about 2027?
Gina Goetter
I would -- it's not going to be as low as $1.3 billion. I think your higher number is more right. How is that for a hint?
James Lloyd Hardiman
Got it. That's perfect. And then as we think about the 2025 guide, right? So margin expansion in that 70 to 170 basis point range. Maybe just help us bridge that in any way you can. The cost savings number that you've laid out there, $175 million, looks like a lot of that's going to fall through to the bottom line, maybe 2/3 of that. I'm getting to something like 300 basis points of margin just from the net cost savings. I guess what are the offsets? Obviously, tariffs seem like they might be a big one. Is that the majority of the delta as I think about getting from the net cost savings to what you guided for the year?
Gina Goetter
Yes. Yes. It's a good question. So when you break down kind of the big pieces of the '25 build, overall volume and mix is going to be a net positive contributor. So think about a point of margin benefit comes from vol/mix. Within the supply chain, which is where you'll see the pickup of the tariff expense, largely supply chain is going to be relatively flat. So we have good amount of cost productivity, and that is able to offset what we're seeing play through in inflation as well as tariffs. So that's kind of a net neutral margin. All of them, the rest of the accretion is coming from below the line and within our managed or operating expenses.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.
Jaime M. Katz
I hope you can drive a little bit further down into the incremental cost savings and maybe the differences in what you found between the $750 million and the $100 million -- I'm sorry, in the $1 billion number that you guys are looking at now?
Gina Goetter
Yes, good question. So to date, I would say the $600 million plus that we've saved gross savings-wise has been, I would say, roughly half of it has been supply chain and the rest has been the balance of line items within the P&L. As we go into '25 and beyond, supply chain will always have that evergreen cost productivity. It's going to offset inflation, but we start to pick up cost savings from a few other areas of the P&L. So the first is within gross to net. So all of that cost that sits between gross revenue and net revenue, that becomes a contributor for us.
Our design-to-value work, we've seen very little of that impact the P&L to date. That also starts to accelerate '25 and beyond. And then the third piece of it is within managed expenses. So as we continue to morph and transform the organization, how we work, how we're spending, et cetera, we start to see that play through in cost savings.
Jaime M. Katz
Okay. And then as you guys continuously evaluate the portfolio, given the rhetoric that you shared around NERF and structural changes maybe in demand around the business, how do you think about what you determine you want to out-license versus what you want to keep on some of these long-lived brands?
Christian P. Cocks
Yes. Jaime, so as we think about how we categorize our brands, we're using a 3-part matrix that's replacing like the old franchise and partner brands. Now it's growth, optimized and reinvent. So brands like NERF, we would classify in the reinvent category. The category has been under a little bit of stress over the last several years. NERF still is a very strong brand, but we have to reinvent ourselves. For something like NERF in particular, I think we have to go back to fundamentals, which is NERF started off in the 1970s as the world's first indoor ball. It's about safe active play. And we can't think about reinventing NERF and just think every solution involves a dart.
So we've challenged our product teams to think about safe active play, think about it more expansively and also think about the business model and the channels in which we operate in. And at the end of the day, there also is always the option to license the product out or license a portion of a brand out, which also is on the table for any of those.
I would say our net bias is that we're going to be a net brand creator, and we're going to do less out-licensing in terms of new brands that are going to be out-licensed but it still always is on the table because honestly, we've had really good success with it. If you look at our share last year, we had a point of share. When look at our out-licensed brands, the POS on those brands are up 50% year-over-year. And our partners are doing a fantastic job helping us to expand into new categories.
We're into vehicles now with TRANSFORMERS via Hot Wheels. We're in the building sets with LEGO with D&D and Peppa Pig and TRANSFORMERS. I think Just Play and BasicFun have done a fantastic job with FurReal Friends and Littlest Pet Shop. So I think that's a viable strategy as well.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Alex Perry with Bank of America.
Alexander Thomas Perry
Just to start on MONOPOLY GO! What should we think as sort of the right underlying run rate now? Looks like that actually accelerated 4Q versus 3Q. Have you seen the marketing spend settle out there? And then just broadly, what drove the source of the digital gaming strength in the quarter? I think MONOPOLY came in better than expected, but it also looks like other parts of the portfolio drove a decent amount of upside.
Christian P. Cocks
Well, I think we're going to keep with our call on about $10 million a month in terms of what we received from MONOPOLY GO! I think Scopely did a great job with their TV campaign. It certainly was a lot of fun seeing Will Ferrell embody Mr. Monopoly and hanging out with all of his celebrity friends. And I think that drove some upside for them.
I think really, though, what really drives the upside of MONOPOLY GO! is it's just a fantastic game that's very sticky. It engages consumers. I also think they've been smart in terms of how they've managed the business. The Tycoon Club isn't the majority of their revenue, but it's been a nice way for them to be able to capture a bigger share of revenue on that, which also benefits us.
So we continue to see MONOPOLY GO! as a huge mobile game. There likely is going to be some month-over-month moderation in the business over time. That's just what naturally happens with mobile. But we feel pretty confident in that $10 million number.
The other thing that's been going really well for us is Baldur's Gate 3. I think we doubled what our forecast was for that business. And that's something that Swen at Larian called really early. They have very long tails on their games. They don't spend as much money upfront on marketing their games. They rely on the quality of the games and the enthusiasm of their community to drive word of mouth and we're seeing that with -- we saw that with Baldur's Gate over the course of 2024 and into Q4. And I think we'll continue to see benefits from that this year in excess of what a typical AAA game would experience.
Alexander Thomas Perry
Really helpful. And then just my follow-up question on the Consumer Products division. Can you just talk about -- I don't think you gave it yet, but sort of how POS trended in the fourth quarter? And then just on sort of the implied first quarter outlook, is sort of the outsized decline all Easter shift? What drives the acceleration as you move throughout the year on the Consumer Products division?
Gina Goetter
Yes. So yes, primarily what's happening in Q1 is the Easter timing shift. I mean there's always, as you go through January and February, the final clear outs and kind of what happens at retail as they're kind of resetting or getting ready for the reset. There's a little bit of that, but not atypical for what the industry typically goes through in January and the early part of Feb. So it really becomes about the Easter timing.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.
Stephen Neild Laszczyk
Maybe first for Gina, one more follow-up on the medium-term margin guide, maybe asked in a slightly different way. I'm curious if you could talk more about the swing factors that are top of mind for you as you think about what could cause you to come in at the high end of that range for margin expansion versus the low end, the $150 million versus $300 million. I imagine digital is a big component there, but I would love to get your thoughts on the puts and takes.
And then second on CapEx. I think CapEx is stepping to $250 million next year. Could you talk a little bit more about the underlying puts and takes of CapEx growth this year, maybe where you're investing? And then looking ahead, what we should expect from the arc of CapEx past 2025.
Gina Goetter
I would say from an overall swing factors on the margin in the out years is really going to be about when that the video game -- the launch timing and when that video game starts to monetize and the capital flow -- or the capitalization flows because that [ decrease ] will hit at the same pace of when the units are coming in. That's how it will be phased. So that will be the factor that swings at either to the higher end of the range or the lower end of the range. But every year, you should take away that we will be growing our margin.
From a capital standpoint, we do have a bit of a step-up this year into '25. We don't expect to see dramatic step-ups as we move through the balance of the strategic plan. But to step up, I would say roughly half of that $250 million that we put out there is going to the video game, the video game launches. And then you could take the balance and say we're going to continue to invest behind toy and toy innovation. And we're also going to continue to invest behind all of the transformation initiatives that are underpinning the strategy. So you kind of take that last half, kind of divide it by 2 and you get where we're prioritizing the spend.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Kylie Cohu with Jefferies.
Kylie Nicole Cohu
I hate to see [indiscernible] but I kind of want to ask a question maybe a different way. Looking at the midterm drivers of margin expansion, I was wondering if you could like rank order those. So whether that's increased licensing revenue, cost savings, just so we can kind of understand where they all -- where those would all fall.
Gina Goetter
Rank order them, like in order of our favorite types of margin?
[Technical Difficulty]
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, we do apologize for the inconvenience. We seem to be having some technical difficulties. Please standby.
Okay. We do have the speakers that we will now proceed.
Gina Goetter
Do we still have Kylie?
Christian P. Cocks
Kylie, are you still there?
Kylie Nicole Cohu
Yes. Yes.
Gina Goetter
It is never a dull moment on earnings day.
Kylie Nicole Cohu
[indiscernible] answering my question though.
Gina Goetter
No. Well, I'll tell you, we have the best answer to your question now though. In all seriousness, so your question of what is really going to drive the margin in the out years? Very simply, it's going to boil down to the profitability improvement we're making within toys. Whether it is the mix benefit that we're generating off of the innovation in the portfolio to all of the cost savings that are playing through with the P&L, that is going to be the single largest contributor to that margin accretion.
Because remember, the Wizards -- we've talked about it a couple of times, the Wizards margin will go down as that monetization start to happen, much more profit in Wizards, just the margin itself will go down.
Kylie Nicole Cohu
Exactly. Okay. No. That is super helpful. And then last one for me is kind of on -- talk about inflation for the year and how supply chain efficiency should offset that pressure. But just kind of curious what -- which cost you're seeing the most inflation in right now? And just kind of how to think about that, should we be conscious of lapping any deflation from the previous year?
Gina Goetter
No. Good question, but nothing material. I mean as we played through last year, we saw in '24, 2%, 2.5% inflation, largely driven by labor. And as we look into '25, it's similar, 2.5%, 3%, a slight tick-up in inflation, largely again driven by labor, both within manufacturing as well as within logistics. But again, our model is to always have that cost productivity offsetting the inflation.
Obviously, I'm kind of putting tariffs to the side as I answer that question. We did see, as we went through the balance of last year, logistics spot rates started to pop a little bit in Q4. We weren't materially impacted by that, but we did see that play through in the market. They're starting to settle out, and we don't expect it to be anything atypical for what we're planning for the year.
Thanks for hanging out and being patient. We'll talk to you later this morning.
Operator
And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. And therefore, this also concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And again, we do apologize for the inconvenience of technical difficulties.
 








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